#ncsen: Time Warner says Hagan 44, Tillis 41, Haugh 7
High Point says it’s all tied up. Time Warner gives Senator Sock Puppet™ a slight lead within the margin of error. What does this all mean? If you think we’ve been drowning in nasty attack ads up to now, YOU AIN’T SEEN NOTHIN’ YET.
The survey connected with 554 likely voters and has a margin of error of +-4.2 percent. The polling was done over the past weekend after those TWO televised debates.
Time Warner polled Hagan v. Tillis v. Haugh as well as a Hagan v. Tillis scenario. In the three-way race, Tillis leads the other two with about half of MEN, while Hagan leads the trio among women with roughly HALF the vote. 
Hagan and Tillis are each polling at 77 percent among members of their respective parties. Tillis has a big lead among self-identified conservatives, while Hagan leads big among self-described moderates and liberals. Hagan leads Tillis by SIX among high school grads, but has only a ONE POINT lead over the Republican with voters who have some college or who have at least a four-year degree.
Hagan leads Tillis by SEVEN with voters from 18 to 49, but Tillis has a ONE point lead with the 50+ crowd. White voters constituted 69 percent of those surveyed. Tillis is winning HALF of that bloc. Black voters were 21 percent of the total respondents, and Hagan got nearly 80 percent of that group’s support. Curiously, Tillis outpolled Hagan with hispanics by 44-25. (They only made up SIX percent of the total respondent population.)
Hagan leads among voters making less than $40,000 per year. Tillis leads among voters making between $40K and $80K. Hagan has a small lead with the over $80K crowd.
Hagan led Tillis with people who have lived in North Carolina less than 20 years. Tillis led the group who had been here 20 or more years. (Interesting — since Tillis arrived in North Carolina in 1998 and Hagan has lived here for decades.)
The Time Warner survey has Tillis leading in Charlotte and Greensboro. Hagan leads big in The Triangle.
Time Warner — in partnership with SurveyUSA — also looked at a head-to-head with Tillis and Hagan. Without Haugh, Tillis leads 46-45.
How reliable is SurveyUSA? In 2008, Hagan beat Dole 53-44. The pollster found the race at 50-43 in the campaign’s final poll. Not too shabby.
My guess is that undecided (however I could be wrong, as well as wavering evangelical (and devoutly Catholic) Christians will give Tillis a slight bump because of the Marriage Amendment-it for one HAS made me MAD! I suspect the same for others as well.
Will it be enough to turn the race around?? This is anyone’s guess..
The continued high score of the Libertarian pizza man is very significant. When a Libertarian is running above 2-3% then it is either an exceptionally good LP candidate (that is NOT the case here) or voters using the LP line as a substitute for ”None of the Above”. In particular, Republican voters like to do that when they cannot stomach the GOP nominee. The rather high undecided vote this late in the game is another mark that voters just don’t like either candidate.
Only 77% of self described conservatives? That is a clear sign that Tillis is having problems with the GOP base. Tillis is suffering from having run an issueless campaign. He is not motivating the GOP base. His only hope is that Obama or arrogant power drunk federal judges may keep doing things that do that for him.
Tillis needed to use the debate to expose Haugh as someone conservatives should not vote for, and he had the ideal issue to do it with, Haugh’s radical open borders position. Tillis was a total fail on that. He even said he agreed with Haugh on some other positions, actually increasing Haugh’s cred with conservatives. This is just one more sign of the totally incompetent campaign Tillis is running. They simply have no clue how to use issues to drive votes.
Tillis leading in Greensboro? great news! lol…
Did you know that KayHag’s kids went to PRIVATE schools ? (but
she’s such a BIG education supporter…)
I believe that some people only ‘claim’ to support Haugh, just to skewer the polls…I have done that in the past …;)
The race is all down to the ad-men now. It will be like watching the Super Bowl ads and voting on which was the best.
The Republicans’ failure to reign in the left-wing UNC campuses will tilt the election to Hagan, especially in the Triangle. The GOP just can’t deal with political reality.
Here is another good article about how Tillis has bungled his campaign by not running on issues:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3209876/posts
His consultants seem to be the gang who can’t shoot straight.
I think the election is trending to Tillis. The national news about ISIS, amnesty and ebola hurts Hagan. Tillis must keep talking about her 96% moderate voting record of agreeing with Obama.