#NCSEN: Rasmussen, Rove conspiring to create illusion of Tillis momentum?

roveRasmussen Reports — a polling firm with close ties to Karl Rove and the Bush political organization — has released their “latest” polling on the North Carolina US Senate race.  It purports to show Republican Thom Tillis at 45 percent, Kay Hagan at 40 percent, 6 percent for “Other” and 9 percent “Undecided.”  The date on their blog posting is for TODAY, but if you go to the article and click on the link for the survey questions — THOSE are dated MAY.  At this point, a poll conducted in May is meaningless. 

A survey by Rasmussen in JANUARY  showed Tillis beating Hagan 47-40.  (The GOP primary was in May.)  In May, Rasmussen had Tillis up 45-44 in a head-to-head matchup.  No Libertarian candidate was figured in. 

A leftist blogger in Montana describes a similar scenario involving Rove and Rasmussen in that state’s 2012 US Senate race:

Insiders tell me that Congressman Dennis Rehberg enjoyed breakfast last month with the folks behind Rasmussen Reports, George Bush’s former polling operation often criticized for making “educated guesses.”

Rasmussen Reports is not Rehberg’s campaign polling firm.  So why would he spend precious campaign time meeting with a polling firm that isn’t his own?  Good question.

This week, a rival polling firm called Public Policy Polling released a poll showing Jon Tester with a five point lead over Dennis Rehberg.  The poll, which sampled  934 Montana voters over the course of three days, showed Rehberg with a dismal 39 percent approval rating.

Lo and behold, one day later, Rasmussen Reports announced it too had a poll hilariously showing Rehberg with a ten point lead.  Rasmussen’s poll only surveyed 450 voters on one day—May 2—the day after the Pubic Policy Poll was released. Again, Rasmussen Reports is known for exhibiting “a considerable bias toward Republican Candidates.”

This isn’t the first time rightwing polls showing Dennis Rehberg ahead have conveniently appeared in Montana’s Senate race.

  • On January 30, Karl Rove’s secret organization Crossroads released a poll showing Rehberg 11 points ahead of Tester.  The timing of the release was no coincidence: It gave a boost to Rehberg only hours before he announced pathetic 4th quarter fundraising numbers, where he pulled in half of what Tester raised.  Look closely and you’ll see that the Crossroads poll itself was actually conducted between January 9-10, a full three weeks before it was announced.
  • Another Rasmussen Poll showing Rehberg ahead was conveniently released just hours after Tester formally filed paperwork to become a Senate candidate on February 21.shenan

Am I saying that Rehberg and his rightwing pollster buddies might have a deal to cook the books every now and then to create a perception of momentum for Rehberg?  Why yes, I am.

By the way, the incumbent Democrat Tester beat Rove’s candidate Rehberg by FOUR in a race RealClear Politics was calling ”Likely Republican.”

The only polls I’ve seen showing Tillis ahead are these Rasmussen surveys, and one from Civitas right after the May primary.  Just two days ago, Civitas releases a poll showing Hagan leading Tillis by TWO. Tillis is also woefully behind Hagan in fundraising.  And the DC establishment appears to be concerned about the Tillis campaign.

  I call shenanigans. 



10 thoughts on “#NCSEN: Rasmussen, Rove conspiring to create illusion of Tillis momentum?

  1. Other than crony capitalism, I just don’t know where Thom Tillis stands. With Kagan, at least I know she believes in communist principles.

    1. Have said this before and will repeat…the main difference between Hagan and Tillis is that Hagan can’t damage our brand. I’m really glad John Rhodes made the write-in threshold. Its nice not to have to hold my nose at the polls for a change.

    2. It is possible that a huge GOP wave might carry Tillis in, but I think the more likely scenario is that depending on that is a recipe for defeat. Tillis is not doing anything to try to win over conservatives, and that may cost him the election. His record does not inspire confidence among conservative voters yet he seems to want to take us for granted.

  2. So what the article seems to be eluding to the fact is that Thom Tillis has to mislead the public to make himself feel better about being behind in the polls in a race that he is losing to Kay Hagan. Is there no shame?

  3. Scott Rasmussen was a competent pollster, who sometimes went out on a limb in his turnout models, but sometimes hit them right. When he was around, politically skewing polls was not a problem, but sometimes he got turnout models wrong. That is a danger for any ”likely voter” poll, but an ”all voters” always skews toward the Democrats.

    That said, since Scott Rasmussen left the polling firm, their reputation for quality and objectivity is not the same as it used to be.

    PPP is a partisan Democrat firm, and sometimes puts its thumb on the scales with turnout models. Some of their demographics are laughable. While Rasmussen could make a rational argument for his turnout models, those of PPP are sometimes so bouncing off the wall crazy that it would look foolish to even try.

  4. Rove will try to smear the good name of Kay Hagan before this is over. But we cannot allow Rove to dictate to North Carolina who our Senator should be. Kay has experience and is close to North Carolina values. Tillis is nothing but a Rino and Kay cares about North Carolina.

    Do not be deceived. Kay is right for North Carolina. And we must get rid of Elmers.

    Show Karl Rove he cannot run North Carolina.

    1. Hagan? Good name? What a laugh! She is a socialist Obamacrat.

      The problem is that there is not that much difference between Hagan and Tillis.

    2. Hagan is nowhere near North Carolina values, certainly not mine. She’s an Obama zombie. Too bad the Republican establishment has sabotaged the people of North Carolina.

  5. Scott Rasmussen is no longer involved with Rasmussen reports. He sold it. I read the folks that own it are liberal.

  6. Rove was called the devil himself during his heyday as #1 Rasputin; Rasmussen’s firm understood the power of controlling American minds. Not surprised Scott Rasmussen sold the ranch; must be rich as Croesus now. The battle for hearts and minds goes on. What we need are soldiers for common sense, that rare and silently sabotaged gift that we all possess.

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