#NCSEN: Polls, Polls, Polls and Polls.
Tillis campaign pollster Glen Bolger, whose firm is known by the unfortunate acronym POS, has released a poll showing the 2014 US Senate race all knotted up at 44 percent apiece. Libertarian Sean Haugh is pulling 8 percent of the vote, with 4 percent undecided. The Washington Examiner’s David Drucker raised an interesting point about Bolger’s poll:
[…]Republicans generally hold the voter turnout advantage in midterm elections and they are favored to gain congressional seats Nov. 4.
But Bolger’s memo on this poll revealed that he used a demographic sample that tracks closely with turnout in the 2012 presidential election, when President Obama narrowly lost North Carolina to GOP nominee Mitt Romney after narrowly winning the state in 2008.[…]
Does ANYBODY seriously expect turnout this November to match or exceed 2012? You had a presidential race and gubernatorial race that year. (In 2012, four million fewer Republican voters showed up for Romney than for McCain in 2008.) I don’t see anything out there right now firing up the masses to turn out and send Thom Tillis to Washington. Sure, there are plenty of people who think Kay Hagan is weird and believe Barry Obama is evil. But WILL THAT be enough to rally the troops around the man from Cornelius and carry him to victory? MORE:
[…] Respondents in the Tillis poll were 72 percent white, 21 percent African-American and 7 percent “other minorities,” and 32 percent Republican and 41 percent Democrat. By comparison, in 2012 exit polls, voters were 70 percent white and 23 percent African-American and 33 percent Republican and 39 percent Democrat.
In the 2012 election cycle, many Republican campaigns were surprised on Election Day when Democratic congressional candidates performed better than GOP polls had suggested was likely. The Democrats gained two Senate seats, winning tough races in Republican-leaning states like North Dakota, where Obama was trounced by Romney.
The Tillis survey suggests a challenging environment for Hagan, even as she continues to do better than many predicted. Her biggest problem? According to this poll, it’s Obama. […]
The Bolger survey was conducted Sept. 2 – 4. Tillis and Hagan debated the evening of September 3. Bolger finds a 41/47 favorable-unfavorable rating for Hagan. Tillis pulls a 33/37 favorable-unfavorable rating.
Jim Hunt got elected governor of North Carolina in 1980 while Ronald Reagan was beating the living daylights out of Jimmy Carter. Mike Easley won two terms as governor as George Bush was winning North Carolina and the presidency in 2000 and 2004. Republican Lauch Faircloth knocked off Democrat incumbent senator Terry Sanford as Bill Clinton was toppling George HW Bush in 1992. The D or the R isn’t necessarily going to carry you across the finish line. A national leader’s popularity or unpopularity isn’t always a factor in Tar Heel State elections. Sometimes, you have to put something more out there.
The CBS News / New York Times / YouGov Battleground Tracking Poll also has new numbers on the North Carolina race. They show Tillis at 41, Hagan at 39 and Haugh at 5 percent. Margin or error is at 3 percent. The poll was conducted between August 18 and September 2. Again, the two candidates participated in a televised debate on September 3.
The article cites North Dakota as an election Republicans lost in the Senate in 2012 while sweeping for president, but it has deeper significance. The Senate candidate, Danny Rehberg was a Rove backed candidate who talked about being bi-partisan and reaching across the aisle. That approach proved to be a loser in an open seat race, which should be easier than running against an incumbent. This is one of those 10 races that Rove lost out of the 12 he has been involved in.
Tillis, like Rehberg, is a Rove-backed candidate who is skittish about taking a stand on real issues.
But North Dakota in 2012 had another statewide open seat race, for their one statewide Congressional seat, and that is a huge contrast to the Senate race. For Congress, instead of a Rove moderate, Republicans nominated staunch conservative Kevin Cramer, who was endorsed by the Club for Growth, a major national PAC of Reagan conservatives. Running as a red meat conservative instead of a mealy mouthed moderate, Cramer won handily among the very same voters who were rejecting Rehberg.
North Dakota in 2012 is positive proof that running as a solid issue-oriented conservative wins general elections while running as a wimpy moderate loses them. Now we have to ask ourselves which path Tillis and his handlers seem bound and determined to take.
Part of the problem is Tillis’ delusion that North Carolina is a centrist state. He actually said something like that two years ago at a North Wake Republican club meet-up.
As for these polls, I seriously wonder if they’re taking into account the conservatives, who rather than opting for the Libertarian, plan to either stay home or will skip the Senate race when marking their ballots. Its hard for me to believe that ALL of the disenchanted conservatives are lining up in the Libertarian column.
Personally, I’m planning on writing in John Rhodes, but again, I doubt he’ll get many more votes than the number of people who signed the petition to get make him “official”.
Unfortunately we are sitting on a prize to replace Harry Reid but many conservatives are still upset over the loss of Greg Brannon. Doing a write in vote will only support the Democratic base. Both candidates are receiving money from out of state pacs but to see an article in the Greensboro News & Record with Kay Hagan complaining about Tillis’ money is extremely hypocritical. Think on that one.
Thom Tillis’s defeat will do more to strengthen the Republican Party long term once the bum is thrown out of NC and the legislature, then the party can begin to heal.
The problem is not sore losers among Brannon supporters. The problem is Tillis’ very longstanding anti-conservative record and his bad issue positions in the Senate race. As long as he is telling the NC Farm Bureau that he supports a pathway to citizenship (a.k.a. Amnesty) he is predictably going to have problems with conservative voters. As long as Tillis has a D- on 2nd amendment issues from the National Association for Gun Rights, he will have a problem with conservative voters.
I read an argument on a national conservative site recently that did make a pretty good argument for electing squishes this year, including Tillis. That was the contention that Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), a staunch conservative and anti-amnesty leader, would be in line to chair the Senate committee that handles immigration with a GOP majority elected. I don’t know all the nuances, like if a squish with more seniority could switch from another committee and turf Sessions out, for example, so we would really need more on how definite Sessions chairmanship would be, but this argument is far, far stronger than that of making squish Mitch ”Kentucky Kickback” McConnell majority leader. If I had some certainty about Sessions chairmanship, it would make it a lot easier to hold my nose for someone as crappy as Tillis. If this is indeed a likely prospect of Sessions getting that chairmanship, I wish someone would really look into the details and report on it. We would also need McConnell’s promise to work to derail any Senate ”gang” approach on immigration.
The jury is still out on the Senate race. Hagan has made herself totally unacceptable, as has Haugh. Tillis seems to be doing his darnedest to also make himself unappealing to conservatives, which is a stupid, stupid, stupid strategy, but one that gives conservatives no good options.
Judges, Man, Judges..Unless you’d like for Harry Reid to rubber stamp whatever Radical Leftist that will give away our sovereignty, overturn our common sense laws (including voter I.D, school vouchers, and the Marriage Amendment), and allow Obama to keep riding rough-shot over our US and NC Constitutions..?
I’d rather have a Republican Senate that at least has a chance to FIGHT BACK. I love NC too much to let an OBAMA Clone in a skirt continue to “Occupy” Jesse Helms old Senate Seat!
Sovereignty? Sadly, we have a GOP nominee in Tillis who is no prize on this issue, as Tillis was the point man in the legislature this year in a major surrender of state sovereignty to the Obama feds:
http://www.beaufortobserver.net/Articles-NEWS-and-COMMENTARY-c-2014-08-12-274181.112112-McCrory-and-Tillis-sell-out-DownEast.html
Voter ID? Sadly, we have a GOP nominee in Tillis who did all he could in two legislative sessions to try to water down our voter ID legislation to the poiint it would have been meaningless. It was only thanks to Berger and the Senate that we finally got a solid voter ID law.
The thought of any of the three candidates on the ballot occupying Senator Helms seat is enough to make you puke. The time is running short for Tillis to show that he is anything other than Kay Hagan without the skirt.
What’s amazing is that 44% of North Carolinians would vote for a communist, someone who believes in central government control over our lives.
I got a call yesterday afternoon from a poll named “Insight” with a Durham telephone number.
He asked three questions:
1. Are you Democrat, Republican or other?
2. Will you vote for Hagan or Tills? (The guy actually pronounced it Tills.)
3. What age group are you?
Kay Hagan is Harry Reid in a skirt (ugh). I’m not sure Haugh is actually a libertarian. Rhodes & the Write-ins (great name for a band) are protest votes, as no write-in candidate for US Senator has won in the south since Strom Thurmond in SC in ’56. So, for me, Tillis. Not enthusiastically. More by default. I cannot take 2 more years of Harry Reid being Barack’s boy in the Senate. And I do have 5 reasons to vote for Tillis: Scalia, Thomas, Alito, Roberts, and (yes) Kennedy. As in, if (Gosh forbid) anything happens to any of them in the next 2 years, a Reid-Hagan controlled Senate will ensure that the Supreme Court will take a sharp turn to the left. Every time I think of not voting for Tillis, I think of Justice Chuck Schumer announcing the Court’s opinion overturning DC v. Heller, and Justice Elizabeth Warren announcing her concurring opinion. If you think it won’t happen, just look at everything Barack has done so far. Allowing guns to go to Mexican drug cartels? Using the IRS to spy on political enemies? Benghazi? Seriously? Appointing Chucky and Fauxcahontas to the Supreme Court is nothing compared to that. I ain’t certain Tillis would vote against Obama’s judicial nominees, but I’m dang sure Kay will vote for every last one of ’em. Two years of a liberal administration, a Dem-controlled Senate, and a liberal Supreme Court = disaster for the Republic.
Love the name of the band, Rhodes & the Write-ins! I will look forward to their first cd.
Funny that it seems that it is always the Republicans who have protest votes but not so much with the Democrats. The left seem to be more at peace with themselves than the right. It must be that trendy coffee they drink or all those art shows they attend.
Or maybe it is that lefties are more loyal to the cause than the righties.
“Yes we’ll rally round the flag, boys, we’ll rally once again….” Obviously a song written by a libbie.
The big issue for me that gives me heartburn about Tillis is amnesty for illegal aliens. That would destroy the country faster than anything the Supreme Court would do. Tillis, at best, talks out of both sides of his mouth on the issue, but when he told the NC Farm Bureau he is for a pathway to citizenship for illegal aliens, which is unabashed amnesty, then he came out of the closet on this issue. That is completely unacceptable, and he is going to have to make a very major course correction on amnesty for me to even consider holding my nose to vote for him, The fact that he seems to be bought and paid for by the rabidly pro-amnesty US Chamber of Commerce and Karl Rove, just adds to the concern.
Raphael,you are so right. After watching the non debate it makes one wonder if this is the best that we can offer. The Demorats stick together because they were hijacked years ago by the Democratic Socialist Party and they have bought into all the things that Nikita Kruschev warned us about.
The GOP has made disastrous appointments to the Supreme Court. Earl Warren, Brennan, Blackmun, Souter, Stevens, Roberts, and Kennedy. The Democrats can’t be blamed for these liberal disasters.
You are correct…in a sense. The GOP has nominated some good and some bad over the years. Most of the bad ones, especially the ones you mentioned, while they had a lasting impact, were nominated in the ’50s, ’60s, and ’70s. We have done better of late. Kennedy, for all his warts (and they are legion), is still preferable to whoever Obama and Hillary would put up there. Except for his one serious glaring error (and it is/was a monumental one), Roberts has been reliable.
However, while the GOP has nominated SOME stinkers, it’s indisputable that the Democrats have nominated ALL stinkers over, say, the last 80+ years (with the possible exception of Byron “Whizzer” White, who – along with Rehnquist – was the only vote against Roe v. Wade).
Thus, while the GOP cannot be completely trusted 100% (and maybe closer to slightly north of 50%), the Dems cannot be trusted at all.