#NCSEN: McCrory is falling. (Can he get up?)
That smug uptown Charlotte crowd and our soon-to-be senior senator better hold off on popping the champagne corks. Their super-powered champion Pat McCrory has apparently been exposed to kryptonite.
The McCrory team has been doing a lot of polling. It’s not looking like a romp over congressman Budd, now is it?
Here’s Team Budd throwing a little bid of shade in re: trends in McCrory’s polling:
For some reason, Pat McCrory’s own campaign yesterday announced that Pat McCrory keeps sinking lower and lower in public opinion surveys. Today, the John Locke Foundation reconfirmed that the HMS McCrory is sinking.[…]
Interesting, since they’ve had a huge lovefest for Pat over there for YEARS.
MORE:
Click here for the smart guy memo from our pollster, Rob Autry of Meeting Street Insights. But if you want to cut to the chase, Jonathan Felts, the campaign’s Senior Advisor, answers your FAQs below. Don’t miss the not-particularly-subtle Dean Smith reminder that Governor McCrory has been a career politician for a lonnnnnnnnnnnng time.
Felts FAQs
Why does McCrory’s campaign keeps releasing survey data showing that he’s doing nothing but trending down and has been since day one?
They probably hope reporters (and major donors) will just look at a simple head-to-head matchup as if the election were held today. We, of course, have the utmost respect for the press corps and know them to be much more sophisticated than that and are confident that reporters know to look for trend lines to see where the numbers are going to be on Election Day, the day that matters. Team Budd plays to win on Election Day. Team McCrory played to win on the first day. That’s why McCrory won’t be around for the post-season.
I read these surveys and it’s clear that McCrory is going to run out of runway before he can get his campaign off the ground. That seems like something your campaign would be emphasizing more than his own campaign would doesn’t it?
I agree with you but look, desperate campaigns make desperate plays, and the McCrory folks are clearly desperate. Ted Budd’s numbers have been going up in every McCrory poll and Pat McCrory’s numbers have been going down. The only numbers going up for Governor McCrory are his Unfavorables. It makes the McCrory campaign pitch seem a bit oxymoronic (emphasis on moronic) “I’m the most electable and to prove it, let me show you survey numbers where I’m sinking in the polls except for my Unfavorables which keep going up!”
Also, not to quibble, but please see above. We prefer the metaphor of the McCrory campaign being a sinking ship rather than a crashing airplane.
Speaking of desperate, has there been a major shakeup in the McCrory campaign? Public Opinion Strategies (POS) did the previous McCrory surveys but not this one. Did McCrory’s campaign fire Public Opinion Strategies?
Desperate campaigns tend to shake things up when they’re losing ground so it would make sense for McCrory to shake things up, but I don’t know the answer. Maybe they weren’t getting the numbers they wanted from POS and needed a quickie push-poll to generate some “positive” news to prevent even more of their donors from abandoning their sinking ship? Who knows? But great question – very sophisticated!
So you’re not worried about the fact that Ted Budd is not in the lead yet?
Nope. Not even remotely. Governor McCrory must’ve thought the rabbit was the hero of The Tortoise and the Hare, but we know that slow and steady wins the race. We will lead on May 17 and go on to victory in November. The trendlines in McCrory’s very own surveys indicate that he’s always going the wrong way and Ted Budd is always going the right way.
The four corners offense (stalling for lack of a better term for you non-sports types) might’ve worked well for Dean Smith four decades ago when Governor McCrory started his career in politics, but it’s not how you win today. You win by taking it to the hoop and putting points on the board every day and every play. Every survey taken since this campaign began has shown Ted Budd to be the guy putting points on the board. And the same surveys show Governor McCrory to be the aging star who stayed too long and can barely make it up and down the court.
And here is some analysis in early November from DC-based WPA Intelligence on the state of the race:
WPA Intelligence polls of North Carolina Republican Primary Voters conducted on behalf of Club for Growth PAC November 1-3, 2021, shows that Ted Budd has pulled within just three points of Pat McCrory in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate as awareness of Donald Trump’s endorsement of Budd has grown to 45% of primary voters. As awareness of Trump’s endorsement continues to grow, Budd should pull ahead and build a lead over the better-known former Governor.
As awareness of Donald Trump’s endorsement of Ted Budd has grown, Budd has pulled within three points of Pat McCrory.
Support for Ted Budd has increased from 21% to 33% as awareness of Trump’s endorsement has grown to 45% of primary voters.
Support for McCrory has fallen nine points to just 36%.
Mark Walker continues to trail substantially with just 13% of the vote.
Check out Mark Walker losing handily to Undecided.
I thought there was an effort to convince Walker to run in another race leaving a two horse race for Senate?
Walker announced that he would be dropping out of the Senate race & running for his old congressional seat. That was in December. Since the current maps haven’t been approved he has put that on hold until those maps are finalized & continued his Senate campaign.
I’ll have to take other people at their word for these numbers, including a number I heard from the Budd camp to the effect that their internals say they’re up four points. But there’s one piece of evidence that this Tillis clone is desperate…..he’s actually coming to SMALL county GOP meetings, which isn’t his thing, he’s always been an air game guy who only pays attention to the urban county GOPs at most. Who knows, that might work for him, I saw plenty of good people at a rural party gathering, eating up his faux conservatalk who obviously have no memory of what a sorry excuse for a Republican Governor that he was.
Dear Lord, why, why??? Never, never learn. Same for 2022. Many will RUN to the polls and pull that R lever simply b/c it’s on the ballot and in many instances, the said candidate is just as worthless, if not more, than the d candidate…. NC is very bad for this. We haven’t ELECTED a Conservative senator since Jesse….just as we haven’t elected a Conservative president since Reagan…Was Hagan any worse than Tillis or Burr?? Liz Dole was quasi republican at best. Far, far too many citizens of NC pull the R lever simply b/c it’s a vote against the d (and that’s not all bad), but it doesn’t mean conservative. Far MORE moderate/lib R’s in NC than Conservative (or those that lead the party and make the decisions). I’ve had several conversations in Dec and Jan and I am stating, don’t pull the R simply b/c it’s a R. Vet EVERY race and if two or more are running, FIND the conservative and work for him/her…Everyone is so distressed and angry now, it will be very easy for very weak, sorry, worthless R’s to sneak in office (as if we don’t have enough already). Is Renee, the Boehner, McCarthy, Ryan darling in a race? That would be a very good example of taking a bite out of a very bad apple…
Pat McCrory is just another Tillis or Burr and North Carolina does not need that. We need someone who will fight for principles like Ted Budd, not Milquetoast McCrory. McCrory has not met a principle that he will not run from if he thinks it is expediate at the moment, like his flip-flopping on bathroom privacy, HB2.
I am so done with holding my nose for poor candidates like Tillis and Burr..
On top of that, McCrory is a loser, losing two of the three statewide races he ran, all of which he should have won but snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory in two of them.
Pat Is one of the largest RINOS in the state, at the moment. His cronyism with King Robin, and their back-turning on coastal NC, and the fishing industry, particularly, cost him. I personally told him, when he was on the coast, making all kinds of promises, that if he failed to follow up, the coast would turn it’s back on him.
Smugly, looking at early voting records, Pat felt obliged to appoint members to the MFC that were poison for all coastal anglers, and the seafood-consuming public. The CCA went to crowing, but Pat didn’t know that the North Carolina Watermen United (NCWU) told everyone who would listen, or asked who we supported, to wait until election day to vote. Sorry, Pat, but you’re just not very smart, and the coast, and all fishermen, snatched your victory right out of your pocket. Silly boy.
To think that the coast, and the people who work, and support our local families, and businesses, have forgotten further shows your high opinion of yourself. You’re a charlatan, Pat, and I would much rather take a chance on Budd, than support the liar that you have proven to be. It’s time for conservatives, not RINOS.
Britton Shackelford
McCrory is weak as water. Very poor political skills. Only sitting Governor ever voted out of office in NC. Voters went out of their way to vote against him. He’s a two time loser statewide. He burned alot of bridges and it cost him.
McCrory sat at the dinner table with me and enjoyed the fresh caught NC Seafood on his plate. He pledged his support of the NC Commercial Fishermen. The very next day he stabbed me in the back. It was shameful and brutal.
I will be voting for Budd.