#ncsen: Gravis Marketing says Tillis 48, Hagan 43, Unsure 9
They conducted this survey of 1022 likely North Carolina voters in partnership with the conservative web site Human Events. (Respondents were only given two names to choose from. There will be a third name on the ballot, Libertarian Sean Haugh, plus THREE write in candidates who can be considered.) The margin of error is +-3 percent. The polling took place October 16 to October 18.
Interestingly, the findings for a 2016 head-to-head matchup between Rand Paul (48) and Hillary Clinton (42) nearly matched the partisan breakdown for the 2014 US Senate race.
The poll found Pat McCrory leading Democrat Roy Cooper 49-41 in a test of a potential 2016 general election matchup for governor. The poll also found a 37-57 approve-disapprove rating for President Obama in North Carolina.
A poll conducted by Gravis about this time in 2012 showed Romney carrying North Carolina by 53-45. (His final margin turned out to be 50.6 percent to 48.4 percent.) Right there at that 3 percent MOE.
2 thoughts on “#ncsen: Gravis Marketing says Tillis 48, Hagan 43, Unsure 9”
Somehow, it is hard to give any credence to a poll that pretends that one of the names which will be printed on the ballot that voters receive is simply not there. Is this polling firm that clueless?
Clearly, history shows the libertarian candidate to get no more than 1 to 2% tops in NC. Period. Maybe Haugh is pretending he will have an outcome on this election, but he won’t. On the flip side, I would actually caution on the other most recent poll by PPP. Four years ago, PPP under-reported the final showing of Burr by half a dozen points at this point in the run up to the election. In addition, the most recent poll by PPP had Democrats comprising a greater proportion of those voting then they actually constitute as per the latest registration. This is blatant hogwash. It looks like Hagan has a ceiling around 47. No more. With the BIG MO clearly with Tillis now, we will have a flip in NC by, I’ll say….10:30 EST on 4 November. You heard it here first.
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