#ncsen: Civitas says Tillis 40, Hagan 39, Haugh 5

This survey of 600 voters was conducted October 15-18.  A regional breakdown shows Hagan leading in Charlotte and the Southeast, while Tillis leads in The Triangle, The Piedmont Triad, and northeastern North Carolina.  Including voters leaning toward each of the three candidates, the split is Tillis 42, Hagan 41, Haugh 6 with 9 percent as “hard undecided.” The same poll — at the end of September — had Hagan with a 41-40 lead.

A head to head matchup this month between Hagan and Tillis has them — including leaners — tied at 44 percent each with 10 percent as “hard undecided.”

How accurate is the Civitas poll?  Let’s look at the late polling from 2008.  Civitas, paired at that time with TelOpinion, had the race at Hagan 45, Dole 43 on October 29. CNN/Time released a poll at the exact same time correctly predicting the race’s final result.   The final split was Hagan 53, Dole 44.  (Civitas is partnered with National Research this year.)