#NCSEN: CBS News / NYT/ YouGov poll shows dead heat

kaytomRecent polling from in-state sources like Civitas and Public Policy Polling have showed incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan slowly building a lead over Republican nominee Thom Tillis.  A new national survey put out by two drive-by kingpins tells a different story:

[…] On Sunday, the research firm YouGov, in partnership with The New York Times and CBS News, released the first wave of results from an online panel of more than 100,000 respondents nationwide, which asked them their preferences in coming elections. The results offer a trove of nonpartisan data and show a broad and competitive playing field heading into the final few months of the campaign.

The Republicans appear to hold a slight advantage in the fight for the Senate and remain in a dominant position in the House. They need to pick up six seats to gain Senate control, and they hold a clear advantage in races in three states: South Dakota, Montana and West Virginia. The data from YouGov, an opinion-research firm that enjoyed success in 2012, finds the G.O.P. with a nominal lead in five additional states.

The five states where the Republicans hold a slight lead in the YouGov panel include three Southern ones — Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina — where Democratic incumbents face tough re-election contests and where Mitt Romney won in 2012. Republicans also have a slight edge in Iowa and Michigan, two open seats in states that usually vote for Democrats in presidential elections.

The Republican advantage, however, is not especially significant in these states, suggesting that the campaign remains up for grabs. The results are broadly consistent with the Times’s forecasting model, which incorporates surveys, fund-raising data and other information, and currently gives the Republicans a 60 percent chance of winning the Senate. […] 

For the record, this survey shows Tillis leading Hagan 48-47 percent with a two percent margin of error.   South Carolina’s Tim Scott (54-40) and Lindsay Graham (51-38) are shown with comfortable leads over their Democrat opponents. 

7 thoughts on “#NCSEN: CBS News / NYT/ YouGov poll shows dead heat

  1. Gosh, gotta wonder why ThomTillis does not share a comfortable lead over his opponent. When do the NCGOP mailers start characterizing NC conservatives as racists?

    1. ???????

      “When do the NCGOP mailers start characterizing NC conservatives as racists?”

      And why in the world would the NCGOP want to do that?

      1. Remember, the GOP hates conservatives. The NCGOP will do whatever Princess Reibu$ tells them to do. Did you send your check in to support the GOP? If not Princess Reibu$ will be upset with you and heaven forbid getting the GOP upset with you. They may parachute the goon squad into your state or come to your house.

        Nothing like a little good old fashioned extortion from the GOP you know the “party of principle.”

      2. Why did the RNC, Mitch McConnell, Richard Burr, and others pay to send out such robocalls against a conservative in Mississippi? Disgusting!!!!

  2. As the election nears I think it will come down to who has done the worst job: The Obama administration or the North Carolina GOP General Assembly.

    Kay will be the face of the Obama administration and Thom will be the face of the NC General Assembly.

    If you think the country is headed in the right direction then vote for Kay.

    If you think North Carolina is headed in the right direction then vote for Thom.

    If you think the country and North Carolina are both headed in the wrong direction then you are probably right. Best then to vote for the candidate serving the best barbecue or the sweetest tea.

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