#NCSEN: American Insights says 42-42 tie, NY Times says 53-47 Hagan

campaignsAmerican Insights is back with some analysis on the North Carolina US Senate race.  The NC-based group first came to our attention in the GOP primary for this seat.  They were probably the only pollster that found Mark Harris in second place.  (Harris ended up in third place behind Thom Tillis and Greg Brannon.) 

The New York Times’s Upshot election model finds Kay Hagan with a 53 percent chance of keeping her seat. The Times also sees a 53 percent chance of a GOP majority in the Senate, and the most likely partisan split in that chamber to be 51-49 in favor of the GOP.  (Though, with at least FIVE dependable RINOs, that margin will feel just like a 46 seat minority.) The Times finds that the Democrats will have AT LEAST 45 seats and the Republicans will have at least 46 seats when all is said and done in November.  Nine seats —  Michigan, Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, Louisiana, Georgia, Arkansas and Kentucky — are all seen as “competitive.”

The Times sees Republicans with better odds than Democrats in only THREE of those nine.   (Only two of those three are currently held by Democrats.)  Of the competitive seats, the best odds for the Democrats appears to be in Michigan and Alaska — which are already  Democrat seats.  For the Republicans, the best odds appear to be in Kentucky and Georgia — which are already Republican-held. 

Nate Silver, of the FiveThirtyEight blog, finds Hagan’s odds of success in November to be 50-50.  The Washington Post sees her with a 98 percent chance of being reelected.