#NCSEN: American Insights says 42-42 tie, NY Times says 53-47 Hagan

campaignsAmerican Insights is back with some analysis on the North Carolina US Senate race.  The NC-based group first came to our attention in the GOP primary for this seat.  They were probably the only pollster that found Mark Harris in second place.  (Harris ended up in third place behind Thom Tillis and Greg Brannon.) 

The New York Times’s Upshot election model finds Kay Hagan with a 53 percent chance of keeping her seat. The Times also sees a 53 percent chance of a GOP majority in the Senate, and the most likely partisan split in that chamber to be 51-49 in favor of the GOP.  (Though, with at least FIVE dependable RINOs, that margin will feel just like a 46 seat minority.) The Times finds that the Democrats will have AT LEAST 45 seats and the Republicans will have at least 46 seats when all is said and done in November.  Nine seats —  Michigan, Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, Louisiana, Georgia, Arkansas and Kentucky — are all seen as “competitive.”

The Times sees Republicans with better odds than Democrats in only THREE of those nine.   (Only two of those three are currently held by Democrats.)  Of the competitive seats, the best odds for the Democrats appears to be in Michigan and Alaska — which are already  Democrat seats.  For the Republicans, the best odds appear to be in Kentucky and Georgia — which are already Republican-held. 

Nate Silver, of the FiveThirtyEight blog, finds Hagan’s odds of success in November to be 50-50.  The Washington Post sees her with a 98 percent chance of being reelected. 

1 thought on “#NCSEN: American Insights says 42-42 tie, NY Times says 53-47 Hagan

  1. Math Class and the Law of Probabilities: This just in….0% chance of the public having actual representation with either a Hagan or Tillis win. Do the polls really matter? NO. Yes one may win over the other but 0% chance of representation. These two thugs represent the jack boot Political Ruling Class, or the PRC which is a combination of the DNC and the RNC. Conversely, special interest will have a 100% chance of special treatment and representation at the public’s expense. That’s the landscape.

    Einstein say: E=MC2 he also say

    RNC + DNC = PRC (Political Ruling Cla$$) Therefore the sub mass with -$$$ will = SOL (sh*t out of luck) for the larger mass greater than the PRC by combining the RNC + DNC which currently exists in the present time continuuem. Until the two equally destructive forces of the RNC and DNC are eliminated the PRC will continue to create the black hole that $uck$ in everything in its path. We have already heard that both Hagan and Tillis equally create a loud sucking sound but it has not been confirmed yet as to what host they are sucking upon.

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