NC-03: Early voting numbers looking good for Greg Murphy

That’s the take from Civitas:

[…W]hile [Joan] Perry has won the headlines this week, there is evidence that [Greg] Murphy is quietly winning the vote. Through the first two days of early (one stop absentee) voting, turnout in Pitt County has far outpaced that of other large counties in the district. The 579 votes from Pitt more than double the amount from the next highest county (Craven, with 262).

 

That is well out of proportion to the total votes in the first Republican primary.  In the first primary 14.7 percent of all votes cast (6,243 votes) were from Pitt County. The other three largest counties were Onslow with 18.7 percent of all votes cast, Carteret with 15.8 percent, and Craven with 14.9 percent. So far in the second primary, 27.8 percent of all votes cast have been from Pitt County comparted to 9.9 percent from Onslow, 9.1 percent from Carteret and 12.6 percent from Craven.

 

[…] Pitt County (which is only partially in the Third Congressional District) is home to Murphy’s NC House district and he easily won in the county in the first primary with a 68.9 percent share of the vote. As an established political force in Pitt county, he would have a well-developed list of volunteers and supporters there, so this early surge in the county is likely due at least in part to a strong get-out-the-vote effort by his campaign.

 

Murphy will have a large advantage if his campaign can maintain the turnout advantage from his home base over the course of the second primary. Even if the turnout gap closes, this early surge in Pitt will free resources the Murphy campaign can use in other areas instead of working on turning out his base. This is precisely the kind of advantage campaigns try to get during early voting.[…]