NC-02: A three-way for the GOP?

a-FrankRocheRotary-8bJust when you thought  you couldn’t get enough of Frank Roche — he throws his hat back in the ring for the 2nd congressional district race.  The second place finisher in the 2014 GOP primary for this congressional seat will join Chatham County GOP chairman Jim Duncan and incumbent congresswoman Renee Ellmers in the May 2016  Republican primary.

Roche has rolled out a refurbished web site and an announcement video to herald his entry into the 2016 race.   Roche struggled wi181477_4887315982703_432071545_nth name ID and fundraising in his last go-around against Ellmers.  The Wake County Republican lost the two-way primary 59-41 percent to Ellmers. Media reports indicate Roche spent raised and spent somewhere in the ballpark of $25,000 to $50,000 in the futile effort.

Our sources are telling us that national and state Tea Party-aligned groups are quietly aligning behind Duncan for the 2016 primary.  But now, there is some concern that Roche and Duncan could split the anti-Ellmers vote in the May 2016 balloting.

The congresswoman, in her third term, is viewed as easy pickings.  In recent months, she’s angered pro-lifers, fiscal conservatives, and amnesty opponents, among others with her statements and votes in Washington.  There is still a lot of time.  Let’s see how this shakes out. 


29 thoughts on “NC-02: A three-way for the GOP?

  1. Roche had his shot at Ellmers and didn’t have what it took. He needs to get his ego in check and clear the field for Duncan this time around.

    This is one more example of why NC needs to go back to requiring a majority to avoid a runoff. The 40% threshold is just nonsense.

      1. I’ll third that, this guy is one of the biggest jerks I’ve ever met. We need to get rid of Renee and this guy will screw it up just so he can see his name on a campaign sign.

    1. If yesterday’s 2nd District Convention is any indication of how people feel about these three candidates, I’d say Jim Duncan wins by a landslide.

  2. Here we go again helping the Rinos hold onto office. I have already been told that other candidates are expected to enter this race in the 2nd District. So what I’m am hoping is all candidates will work hard and let’s let Club for Growrh or Right to Life to do a poll to show who the conservative leader is and at that point everyone else back out and support the conservative leader. The leadership in DC already are rebranding Rino Renee to look like a tea party patriot. Let’s not be fooled again. Let’s come together as conservatives and rightfully win this conservative seat.

    There is a shortage of nurses in Dunn is this a coincidence? I think not ……………No Rino Renee!

  3. What a joke! Does he think the third time is the charm. He needs to withdraw immediately . He does not know how to run a campaign and I know that because I was involved in one of them. You know that old saying about to much smarts and not enough common sense. Here is a good example.

  4. I fully supported Roche, but this is ridiculous. I can’t help but think this is becoming an ego thing – Mr. Roche would be putting himself before this country and NC2. Please Mr. Roche, consider the damage this will do, both to our country and your reputation if NC2 voters have to suffer another Ellmers term.

  5. Duncan did not support Roche last year and even claiming he jumped in the race causing him not to run. Duncan is another establishment republican which is no different than ellmers. Roche has my full support.

    1. At least Duncan had the decency to allow Roche the chance to take on Ellmers rather than splitting the vote. I’d say THAT is putting the district first.

    2. Duncan is certainly not another establishment Republican. He has close connections with the major conservative groups in DC, not with with establishment. The national conservative groups vet their candidates very well, and Roche apparently did not pass muster last time.

      Roche has said some rather non-conservative things in past races on economic issues, which have been written about on this site so he is not that great, although he was certainly preferable to Ellmers, but then Mickey Mouse would be preferable to Ellmers.

      Roche got the vote and support he did last time because he was ”not Ellmers” rather than because of himself. That vote will be with the more substantive challenger, Duncan, this time, and Roche would be lucky to get mid single digits. Roche in 2016 cannot be a real competitor, only a spoiler who helps Ellmers. With a one on one shot against Ellmers, Roche could not build a campaign to take her down. He certainly cannot with a more substantive candidate in the race.

      If he is really interested in helping the conservative movement, instead of his own ego, he needs to find a race that needs a challenger, like Holding or Burr, or perhaps one of his local legislators, if they are more of the Big Government Republican stripe (I don’t know who his legislators are, so I cannot say for sure on that one).

  6. Stalking horse? In any case, I see Frank finishing second again. Ellmers third. He’ll just bring the win percentage down. Is this really how he wants to be remembered???

  7. Laura Ingraham needs to intervene.

    She backed Roche the first time and duped Ellmers into an interview.

    I wonder about Ellmers political skills considering she took an interview with Ingraham.

    Why can’t Roche run against Burr?

    1. Roche could run against Burr or he could run against Holding, both of whom have votes that they need to answer for in a primary.

      The Senate Conservatives Fund is looking for a primary opponent for Burr, and if they find one, Roche might be excess baggage there, too. However, if he were to convince the SCF that he had the horsepower to take on Burr, that would be his best shot.

      With Holding, the race ought to be boiled down to a referendum on Boehner by hanging Holding’s vote for Boehner around his neck. Even before the amnesty funding sellout polls showed that 60% of GOP voters wanted Boehner gone and only 18% wanted to keep him. I suspect the numbers are even higher now.

      Conservatives need one on one primaries against establishment hacks, not fusterclucks. If Roche jumps in the 2nd district race, he will be carrying water for the establishment, whether that is his intent or not.

    2. Ingraham had Roche on her show yesterday. We need to let her know via emails, calls, social media, etc. to give Duncan a fair shake!

  8. I was very disappointed to see Frank has announced he’s running again and I hope he reconsiders. We need one strong candidate like Jim Duncan to beat Ellmers. The 2nd District CANNOT ENDURE another traitorous term with Ellmers. Please, someone talk Frank out of this third try. He had his chance and now we need to support Jim Duncan and get him across the finish line. If ever we needed conservative unity, it is now! Jim Duncan will need all our support and donations to get rid of this terrible woman!

  9. Frank Roche…this is the same guy who lost the State Treasurer primary to Steve Royal. Now folks, Royal, was the guy who went to the State GOP Headquarters and said he wanted to run for something and they told him hey why not State Treasurer. Roche had been in a Congressional race in 2010 and should have trounced the political unknown Royal yet laid a huge egg against him. That should have been the sign for him to get out of politics and at that time he said he was finished. Oh well I guess another loss is in his future. And those worried about a runoff wait until Arthur J. Rich, the guy who got destroyed by Butterfield, gets in the race. This is getting to be a joke!!

    1. Arthur Rich was pointed by NCGOP to run against Butterfield. I suspect the establishment is trying to clog the primary in the 2nd to try to save Ellmers. Arthur Rich proved himself a very poor candidate in the 1st, and would probably finish in low single digits in the 2nd.

      The only way to stop this lousy game of multiple opponents to water down the real challenger is to end the insanity of the 40% threshold to avoid the runoff. Common sense, and fairness, dictate that it should be a majority.

      1. Have to disagree with you on this one. Arthur Rich worked his tail off in a district no Republican could hope to carry and he did as well as any other candidate in previous years. Not saying he’s a great candidate, but having worked with him personally, he’s not abysmal, and who can say how he’d do in a competitive district.

        1. He did spend a lot of time on the race, but failed to develop a message that would resonate. He was spinning his wheels. If you compare his vote totals and fundraising numbers with Woolard’s in the same district an election or two ago, you will see a significant difference. Arthur Rich got only the base GOP vote, and is likely to go into any other campaign with the same message that fails to connect with voters.

        2. Hey Toxhandler…thats simply not factual. Lets look at how candidates performed in the First since 2002. Highest percentage to lowest percentage:

          2010-Woolard- 41% (Won 6 Counties)
          2004-Dority- 36% (Won 1 County)
          2002-Dority- 35% (Won 1 County)
          2008-Stephens- 29% (Won 0 Counties)
          2014-Rich- 26% (Won 0 Counties)
          2012-DiLauro- 23% (Won 0 Counties)

          And lets not even get started on the fundraising. So your argument that Rich did as well as any candidate in previous years doesn’t hold water!

  10. Hey Rapheal…you are correct. Rich was a terrible candidate against Butterfield but also do not forget his Lt. Governor bid in 2012. Arthur Rich put a whopping 3.3% in that primary in a distant fifth place. I do believe you may have some things wrong in regards to Raleigh pointing Arthur to anything. Do you think the “establishment” has anything to do with the likes of Rich?

    1. I know for a fact that the establishment tried to recruit candidates of Rich’s caliber (serial candidates) to run in the Senate primary in 2014 to dilute opposition to Tillis. I also know that Rich has told people in the 1st district that the NCGOP suggested he run for Congress there in 2014. That information leads to the suspicion that something similar may be behind Rich’s interest in the 2nd district.

  11. Oh so Rich said he was “recruited” by NCGOP. I find that laughable. Don’t worry ole Raphael…I think if there was some conspiracy by the State party here it would not include Art Rich. Rest easy on that!

    1. I know that calls were made from Raleigh to at least one other candidate similar to Rich, and just as laughable, to try to get him into the Senate race. He refused.

      With a 40% threshold, every little bit you can shave off the real opponent helps, which is why they go for even laughable candidates.

      As to Rich and the 1st, maybe someone just wanted to fill up the ballot, or maybe they did that so he would not file for something else. Rich is a serial loser, but could cause a primary where someone wanted to avoid a primary.

  12. I see and smell the hand of the GOPe at work here. Mr. Roche, please re-consider for the good of America and NC2.

  13. Jim Duncan should offer to serve 1 term just to get rid of Ellmers.

    Then Roche and others can battle long term in 2018 for who should represent the district.

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