Game ON! (Assessing the *damage*, prepping for the final lap )

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We’ve endured a lot of nonsense and vitriol.  Now, we’re down to the final stretch.  This is all over by tomorrow – Tuesday – night.

As of October 31, North Carolina had a total of 7,896,829 registered voters. That breaks down like this:

Democrats: 2,343,565
Republicans: 2,330,937
Unaffiliated: 3,170,578

Here’s how our state turned out through the end of early voting:

And HERE is how those voters broke down in terms of party registration:

Some folks I know – who are really smart about elections – tell me there’s a good way to use this info to ball-park how the situation stands going into Election Day.  Give the GOP ticket 90 percent of the GOP turnout and the Democrat ticket about 90 percent of the DEM turnout.  Give the GOP ticket about 40 percent of the Unaffiliated turnout and the DEM ticket the remainder.

OK, time for a little math.  If we do that here, we get:

GOP:  658,404 + 391,565 (UNA) = 1,049,969
DEM:  960,230 + 587,347 (UNA) = 1,547,577

Now THAT is quite a hole to dig out of.  Again, it’s a method of ball-parking. Each party may improve (or get a little worse) with party loyalty.  The GOP may surprise us all and poll a little stronger among unaffiliated voters.

But this is a pretty good way to look at how we will be starting off on Election morning.  If you’re passionate about the GOP message and continuing GOP control in Raleigh and DC, this ought to kick you in the butt and light a fire underneath you.  Get out to vote and drag every like-minded soul you know to the polls with you. 

Let’s look at the congressional districts and legislative districts.

Valarie Foushee’s strong-Democrat 4th district has been a steady leader in the turnout department.  The 11th district – the fight to replace embattled Rep. Chuck Edwards – is right on the 4th district’s heels.  That’s followed by Deborah Ross’s (D) 2nd congressional district and David Rouzer’s 7th district.  Tim Moore’s (R) 13th district showed some surprising turnout strength.

Now let’s look at the state Senate districts. Here are the top EIGHT in terms of turnout:

District 8: Bill Rabon (R)
District 13: Lisa Grafstein (D)
District 11:  Lisa Barnes (R)
District 20:  Natalie Murdock (D)
District 18:  Haseeb Fatmi (D)
District 22: Sophia Chitlik (D)
District 23: Jonah Garson (D)
District 26: Phil Berger (R)

Now, let’s look at NC House districts:

District 17:  Frank Iler (R)
District 19: Charles Miller (R)
District 29: Vernetta Alston (D)
District 114:  Eric Ager (D)
District 54:  Robert Reives (D)