DEM strategist: NC GOV polls not telling the race’s true story

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North Carolina political junkies may be familiar with Brad Crone.  He’s a regular talking-head for a lot of state-level political TV coverage.  Crone has been in the game for a long time. He’s a devout Democrat who gives it all for his party.  But he sometimes manages to cough up a little insight and wisdom that deserves respect on both sides of the aisle.

 

 

Crone was recently on a UNC-TV political roundtable talk show where the subject of a double-digit lead in the polls for Democrat gubernatorial nominee Josh Stein came up. Here was his two-cents on the race’s polling:

“[…] At this point in the campaign, I think you could write a poll on Charmin and get better use out of it.  That’s sort of where we’re at with all the polling information out there.  Here’s the bottom line: It’s gonna be close. And it’s going to depend on who gets out their vote. And both sides have major machines working in the state right now to turn out the vote. 

On the governor’s race, that’s going to collapse. That race will be a four or five point race — remembering that one point in North Carolina is 55,000 votes. So, I think Stein wins and I think he will win around 200,000 votes — so, four, four-and-a-half percent. 

A 17 point lead is something that is probably make-believe at this point in time. He’s ahead. I don’t disagree with that. I just doubt the margin. […] ”

 

For the record, Democrat Roy Cooper beat Republican Dan Forest in 2020 by 4.4 percent.  Take a look at how many polls on that race – taken at about this time – had Cooper with a double-digit lead:

I count seven out of a total of eleven. The RCP Average gave Cooper a winning margin of 11 percent.  (Again, he won by 4.4 percent.) 

So, Crone thinks Mark Robinson might just end up tying (or slightly edging out) the mark set by 2020 gubernatorial nominee Dan Forest.

Pollsters may be right about Stein leading the race right now.  But Crone – and the evidence we see — may have a point about the margin between the two leading candidates.