Campaign 2012: Big lead for McCrory against each of top three Dems in Civitas poll

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The right-leaning, Raleigh-based Civitas Institute has released polling apparently showing Republican Pat McCrory in the driver’s seat for the 2012 race for NC governor.  (Remember, it is only March. The primary is in May.  Barry and his hordes and their cash descend on Charlotte in June.  In other words, it’s early.) 

Here are some of the poll’s findings:

[…]

6. If the election for Governor were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: Pat McCrory, the Republican or Walter Dalton, the Democrat?

2/12  3/12
49%  48% Total McCrory
30%  32% Total Dalton

37%  36% Definitely McCrory
10%  10% Probably McCrory
2%  2% Lean McCrory
20%  18% Undecided (DO NOT READ)
2%  2% Lean Dalton
7%  9% Probably Dalton
20%  21% Definitely Dalton
2%  2% Refused

7. If the election for Governor were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: Pat McCrory, the Republican or Bob Etheridge, the Democrat?

2/12  3/12
46%  49% Total McCrory
32%  34% Total Etheridge

36%  36% Definitely McCrory
9%  10% Probably McCrory
2%  3% Lean McCrory
19%  15% Undecided
2%  3% Lean Etheridge
9%  9% Probably Etheridge
21%  23% Definitely Etheridge
2%   2% Refused

8. If the election for Governor were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: Pat McCrory, the Republican or Bill Faison, the Democrat?

2/12  3/12
48%  51% Total McCrory
27%  28% Total Faison

38%  3 7% Definitely McCrory
9%  11% Probably McCrory
1%  3% Lean McCrory
22%  19% Undecided
2%  2% Lean Faison
8%  7% Probably Faison
18%  20% Definitely Faison
3%  2% Refused

[…]

This poll of 600 registered 2012 general election voters in North Carolina was conducted March 22-25, 2012 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered 2012 general election voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past three general elections (2006, 2008, 2010) or be newly registered to vote since November 2, 2010.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in at least one of the past three general elections or is newly registered since November 2, 2010.

Some thoughts:

  • This poll is of “registered voters,” which is less reliable than “likely voters.”
  • In each case, the Undecided vote is larger than the spread between the “Definitely” vote for each candidate.
  • McCrory has lost ground against Dalton in a month.

 

What we have here is an overall lukewarm response from voters on the governor’s race.  We have three leading Dems who are not lighting fires with the faithful.  The GOP candidate’s play-it-safe strategy hasn’t exactly built a diehard following.  (Sort of like Mitt’s problem nationally.)  It’s like the Definitely McCrory vote is more of a rejection of Barry & Bev and an embrace of their leading alternative, rather than an outbreak of PAT LOVE.

This thing STILL l0oks wide open, with a LOT of work AND time left.