A last minute look at the 2020 polls
Everyone knows what polls are like. (Hint: Everyone has one. ). Ask President Tom Dewey if you don’t believe me.
I have campaign operatives on both sides of the fence who talk to this site on the down-low, and they all tell me it hinges on how strong Trump is.
The big prizes in the Tar Heel State, of course, are president, US Senate, and governor. Senator Tom Tillis has yet to hit or pass the 50 percent mark since he first went to Washington in 2014. In fact, folks in his 2014 campaign thought he was going to lose to the very weak Kay Hagan right up to the last hours of Election Day.
Most candidates lock their base up, and then spread their wings trying to pick up more moderate voters. Tillis has done the opposite. I have never seen anyone tick off their base voters as quickly and as viciously as Tom Tillis. Conservatives are being told to hold their noses and vote for Thom anyway. “The Senate is at stake,” we’re told. (I’m wondering how much nose-holding will be going on with Tillis’s uptown Charlotte buddies when it comes to Trump or Mike Causey — who helped bust their pal Robin Hayes?)
FiveThirtyEight shows Biden with a 2.1 percent edge over Trump in North Carolina as of today. RCP shows polling this year pretty evenly split between the candidates. Biden’s biggest lead was 12 points in a poll of the state by Emerson in June. A poll taken 10/30-10/31 by InsiderAdvantage has Trump leading by FOUR POINTS.
Looking back at 2014, we see that only one pollster — Harper — picked Tillis’s winning percentage. NOBODY got the spread or Hagan’s vote right. In fact, most polls showed Hagan winning.
Let’s look at 2020 now. According to FiveThirtyEight, only TWO of eighteen polls taken between October 27 and October 31 give Tillis a lead over Democrat Cal Cunningham. According to RealClearPolitics, you have to go back to October 20 to find a poll that gave Tillis a lead (2 points). In fact, between 4/5 and 10/30, there were only seven polls that gave Tillis a lead. A poll taken on April 5 by Civitas gave Tillis a four point lead.
The 2020 governor’s race looks even bleaker for Republicans in the polls. RCP looked at polling for this race between January 4 and June of this year. Cooper’s largest lead was 27 points in an April poll by WRAL. His smallest lead was four points in a June poll by Public Policy Polling.
FiveThirtyEight also looked at the race and saw nothing but Cooper leads. The biggest Cooper lead was 19 points in a Marist poll taken from October 25 to 30. The smallest Cooper lead appeared to be four points in a poll by Cardinal Point Analytics from October 27-28.
Don’t let any of this discourage you. Get out and vote like your life depends on it.
No to Biden and Cooper. Could not vote for tillis or cunning cunningham.
not voting for Tillis is a vote for Cal #DoNotLetThatHappen
On the very back seat of the TIllis bus….but there…can’t do Cal. If that dog, hypocrite, slime of a man/husband/father gets elected, I cannot fathom him being sworn in the US Senate.
What is ‘it’ that gives Cooper such solid support in NC? Anyone voting Trump should not be voting Cooper, 180 degrees. So, how does Cooper win if Trump wins? My first priority was NOT vote Cooper. Second was voting Supr Ct Justices and Atty General and then voting Trump. I’m dumbfounded by Cooper destroying this state’s economy, school system and small biz and having any chance of winning? He should have about 40% support, AT BEST.
God help NC IF Cooper gets another 4Y and Stein wins and Supr Ct remains D’s. We will never recover, which goes to my Q, how is it the D’s are taking NC if Trump does as well?
And I thought John Edwards was a dog….then there’s Cal….
The Urban Cesspools have the power in the state this is how Leftism happens in America
What’s with the polls? Are they factoring in the coming fraud? Even that doesn’t explain the disparity in the race for governor. Can people really be that stupid? I wonder.
jwmson, you are absolutely spot on. It doesn`t make any sense, our eyes show us a totally different picture. Don`t pay any attention to the polls, they are more for shaping opinion, than actually giving truthful facts on candidate standing. Roy Cooper would be lucky if he could buy a few votes, at best, not be in the lead after literally destroying North Carolina.
well if cooper wins I will have lost all respect for humanity
Voted a straight Democrat ticket EXCEPT for Dale Folwell. Here’s why: 1. He’s done a good job. 2. He has ticked off the Insurance Companies (Is that EVER a bad thing?), and most importantly 3. I’m a retired State Employee who worked in higher education for over 25 years. I honestly do not want an “academic” in charge of my money (retirement fund).
Are you on this site as a Conservative? Republican? Just wondering…….
I’m a generally liberal Democrat. I read this site to learn different points of view. Also read HuffPost and DrudgeReport, Daily Kos and BreitBart. I usually don’t agree with the Conservative views but it’s important to read them if, for no other reason, to at least challenge my own point of view.
David Collins, You are much too smart to be a current Democrat Party supporter. The very fact that you think for yourself is proof alone, and shows you are more of the old time Democrat, that loved this Country, and it`s Constitution. Your Party has abandon you, and it is time for you to come home to the Party that believes pretty much the same way I believe you do, the Republican Party. Think about it.
I will hold my nose, and vote for Tillis, because we need that seat for the Republican Party. I look at Tillis as a seat holder waiting for a good man to take over. We MUST put forward better candidates, solid conservative men, and women, then kick out all RINOs like Tillis, Burr, and any other bottom feeding scum suckers in the Party. The only reason Roy Cooper is Governor is because of voter fraud, we must never let that happen again. We must also balance out our State Supreme Court. There are too many activist Democrat Justices, legislating from the bench, instead of interpreting the Law. This election is the most important election in the history of our Nation since founded, and we must save our Country, so get out there and vote in person!!
100% agree….
And hearing all day today, Senate and House may be lost! IF Cooper wins and House/Senate flips, we are done as a state. It is over. Mass medicare expansion, taxes, spending and liberalism like Chapel Hill and Carrboro only dream of…..
My wife and I have actually discussed where to go if the radicals take over NC. My job is remote and was so even before the virus hoax. I am thinking maybe SC or GA once my kids get out of college. The Doof has been so destructive and authoritarian this year, and the fact that NC is going to put him back in is just too much. I just don’t get how anyone with a brain has thought he has done a good job…I guess there are enough old folks who are not affected by the economic destruction who think he has kept them saaaayfff with his syence and dayta.
Until the NC GOP gives the RINO establishment the boot, NC will continue to trend Democratic. Burr and Tillis are total embarrassments. Pat McCrory didn’t know whether he was coming or going. Justice Bob Edmunds handed the Supreme Court to the Democrats. And don’t even mention the GOP legislature stacking the UNC Board of Governors with liberal RINOs.