Poll: Sam Page UP BY TEN over Phil Berger

Yes, you read that right.  A GOP state senate primary that holds the key to how things get done in our state capital is not looking good for the political establishment and the legislature’s top powerbroker.

A survey of 403 likely Republican primary voters in state senate district 26 (Rockingham and Guilford counties) conducted between December 11 and December 14 found Rockingham County sheriff Sam Page with a ten point lead over state senate president pro tem Phil Berger (also of Rockingham County). 

Here’s what the pollsters found:

[…] IF THE PRIMARY WERE HELD TODAY, PAGE WOULD WIN BY 10+%. Phil Berger and his allies have spent well over $2 million to help Berger and attack Sam Page compared to virtually nothing spent to assist Sam Page – but that hasn’t mattered much. Page’s lead over Berger stands at 41.9% to 32.3% with 25.8% undecided.

PRESIDENT TRUMP’S ENDORSEMENT ISN’T ENOUGH TO BAIL OUT BERGER. President Trump is obviously viewed extremely favorably among Republican primary voters, but these voters make a clear distinction between the politician they like – Trump – and the politician they do not like – Berger.

When informed of President Trump’s endorsement of Berger, 70.7% of respondents said they were either more likely to vote for Page (25.4%), the endorsement had no effect on their vote either way (37.2%), or they were unsure (8.1%). Among the 29.3% that said they were more likely to vote for Berger after hearing about the Trump endorsement, an overwhelming majority were already Berger supporters; while the endorsement may firm up their weak support, the endorsement has too little impact to meaningfully close the current 10% lead that Page enjoys over Berger.

In a vacuum, if the only campaign messaging voters received between now and Election Day were advertisements from Berger touting the Trump endorsement, he would gain 3.6% on net and lose to Page by 6%+ on Election Day.

WHAT VOTERS WILL HEAR: Berger and his team have been attacking President Trump for a decade. On net, the contents of these attacks cast a negative cloud over Berger that is far more intense than the positive benefits of Trump’s endorsement. After being informed of Phil Berger and his team’s years of attacks on Trump, 50% of all respondents said they were now more likely to vote for Page. This includes 27% of Berger’s own supporters, who said they were prepared to abandon him and vote for Page after hearing about Berger’s contempt for the President.

Among the 26% of the electorate that is undecided on the Senate race, 44% said they would support Page after hearing of Berger’s disdain for Trump, compared to only 13% who said they were more likely to support Berger.

On net, if voters heard about the attacks on Trump from Berger and his team, Berger would drop 13.2% against Page and lose by 23%+ on Election Day. […]

When your share of the vote is this close to the number of Undecideds, you’re not sitting very pretty.  Especially if you’ve been an incumbent for more than a dozen years.

This finding comes after weeks and months of attack ads pummeling Page on behalf of Berger. It also comes days after President Trump reportedly endorsed Berger for reelection.

Here is what the pollsters found regarding favorability ratings of the two candidates:

[…] Most Republican elected officials are viewed in an overwhelmingly positive light by Republican primary voters. For Berger, this is not the case. Berger’s favorability rating is concerning at 44% favorable to 43% unfavorable. The median Republican primary voter has an unfavorable opinion of Berger, as he is more intensely disliked than liked: 28% of primary voters have a “very unfavorable” opinion of Berger compared to only 21% with a “very favorable” opinion.

President Trump enjoys an 80% favorability rating in the district vs. only 18% unfavorable.

Sheriff Sam Page comes in with a 52% favorability rating vs. 23% unfavorable, and 25% who say they are unsure or who have not heard of Page. Unlike Berger, the intensity of Page’s favorability is positive, with 32% saying they have a “very favorable” opinion of Page vs. only 14% who say they have a “very unfavorable” view of him.

This favorability rating is impressive considering Page only represents 45% of the district as Sheriff of Rockingham County. […]

Election Day arrives during the first week of March.  President Trump is supposed to show up in Rocky Mount this week to cheerlead for Berger, Mike Whatley and some other dubious characters in North Carolina politics.