#ncsen: First, the Bengals & Panthers. Now, it’s Kay &Thom.

tieHigh Point University’s polling gurus says we have a tie on our hands: Hagan 40, Tillis 40, Haugh 7.  A total of 584 likely voters were surveyed between September 30 and October 2, and then from October 4 to October 9.  The margin of error was +-4.1 percent. 

This is the best news for the Tillis camp since a 43-42 result of a September 2 CBS online poll.

Here is the take from High Point’s polling director:

“We have been saying all along that North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race had the potential to be extremely close. These results show that it may be a tie going into the home stretch. Voters make two basic decisions: whether to vote and for whom they will vote when they get there. This particular race will likely hinge on how partisans make that first decision. […] [W]e see some of the same factors playing out in North Carolina that are affecting incumbent re-election chances in our other highlighted states. President Obama’s approval is relatively low. People are pessimistic about the direction of the country. And the Republican Party makes a strong showing in the generic congressional ballot test.”

We couldn’t find any documentation of High Point’s accuracy in the 2008 US Senate race.  (CNN and Time were right on the money with their numbers on 10/28/08.)

Time Warner Cable News is releasing their survey on the 2014 race today.  It will be interesting to see how their results compare.

11 thoughts on “#ncsen: First, the Bengals & Panthers. Now, it’s Kay &Thom.

  1. Isn’t that the same Time Warner Cable company that Tillis has a business relationship with? What could possibly go wrong? Certainly they wouldn’t undercut their business partner.

  2. The comments is this poll show something that Tillis’ campaign has been ignoring, and that is that off year elections are about turning out your base. Hagan has run the sort of campaign that will encourage her base to turn out. Tillis has avoided issues and run the sort of campaign that puts the GOP base to sleep. If voters respond primarily to the campaigns the two candidates have run, Hagan has a clear advantage in that she has done a lot more to turn out her base. Unfortunately, the national GOP has also done a very poor job on nationalizing the race with one or more powerful issues to turn out the base. The issues are there to be used, but the idiots we have leading us just refuse to use them. Again, Obama has done a much more effective job of motivating his base. If Republicans lose, it will not be Democrats beating them but Republicans running a stupid campaign and beating themselves. There is one potential saving grace that may still save Republicans and that is Obama. In spite of everything, Obama may be just enough of a lead anchor for Democrats to motivate enough Republicans to turn out in spite of the very poor campaign that has been run by the GOP nationally and in North Carolina. That is especially true if Obama says or does something stupid that gets in the media without Republicans having to put it there (the present campaigns are probably too stupid to do it if it is up to them) and if events showcase more of Obama’s failings. The blind squirrel may just find an acorn, but I would not bet the ranch on it.

    This election year was such a target rich environment for Republicans that we should be far ahead at this point. The fact that we are not shows us that we have inept leadership that badly needs to be replaced.

    1. The best candidates are running.Tillis has had the most money and most negative ads run against him in history.3 x’s what he has spent.Plus he has the far right attacking him daily on websites for no reason other than he is not far right enough for them.You can’t name a candidate that can satisfy you and win a state wide race in NC.Tillis is going to win because he is the best candidate and he has the momentum.If he had the kind of money, or even half the money Hagen had he would win fairly big.

      1. That’s a pretty severe oversimplification regarding the base’s issues with Tillis. I do agree he may very well win but mainly due to exogenous circumstances that have nothing to do with either candidate or their respective strengths or weaknesses.

      2. Why Tillis is a weak candidate?

        1) Blueprint. Tillis was the only candidate whom that Democrat Blueprint tarbaby would stick to, because he has been a legislator and even more so a legislative leader. Democrats invested a lot in their Blueprint smear of the GOP legislature, and they got just the candidate to use it on. Given Blueprint, it was political malpractice to run any legislator this year for US Senate. Tillis offered Hagan a powerful line of attack that she did not have against a non-legislator US Senate nominee, and one that was perfectly geared to motivate her own base.

        2) Issue positions and record. Tillis’ own record on issues made it problematic to use the best issues on which Hagan was vulnerable. Polls show that the number one issue to fire up the GOP base this year is a strong stand against illegal immigration, and they also show that issue is a vote winner with moderates and independents. How can Tillis use it, however, when he has been such an amigo of the illegals in the legislature and even told the NC Farm Bureau that he supported a pathway to citizenship for illegals? Obamacare is also a very powerful issue in the polls, but how can Tillis use it when he called Obamacare ”a great idea” and pushed a bill through the NC House to set up a state Obamacare exchange in North Carolina? Carbon taxes / carbon regs have proved an extremely powerful issue in recent Australian and Canadian elections, and Obama has set up the GOP to use it just as powerfully here, but Tillis’ cheerleading for the corrupt green energy boondoggles and supporting closely related legislation in the House puts him in a position where that issue is off the table for him. Even the issue of Hagan missing Committee meetings in the Senate is lessened by Tillis’ record of missing House sessions to go fundraise out of state.

        3) Divisive record in GOP – Tillis’ history as a Richard Morgan ally still leaves a sour taste in the mouths of many Republican activists who were around during that period. On his own, he has been just as bad as Morgan in trying to cram liberal candidates down the throats of local parties who did not want them, and viciously trying to remove well liked conservative legislators from office.

        4) Candidate skills which are not ready for prime time – Flubbing the name of the committee Hagan missed meetings of at the time that was the main slam his campaign was running against Hagan is really sophomoric, and accusing Hagan of becoming part of the ”Republican establishment”? Is he really that out of it? I see now why he ducked all those candidate forums at primary time and tried to duck the debates.

        Please detail with specifics why you contend Tillis is not a weak candidate?

      3. The two candidates who first come to mind who could win statewide, avoid Blueprint attacks, raise the money, unite the party, and run on the issues on which Hagan can be beaten are Lt. Governor Dan Forest and former Ambassador Jim Cain. Another is Congressman Mark Meadows.

        1. But yet here on planet earth we did not have one credible candidate to challenger Speaker Tillis. He waltzed to victory without even a runoff. ‘What might have been’ means little now. NC will either send Hagan or Tillis to the Senate.

          1. For you lefties, it appears that you define ”credible” as someone who will lose to your Democrat. The Fall matchup polls during the primary consistently showed that Tillis was one of the weakest general election candidates in the GOP primary field.

            As to ”waltzing” to victory, that is nonsense. On his own, he was in a virtual tie in the polls, a long way from avoiding a runoff that he would have lost. Then Karl (Marx) Rove opened his checkbook, and he and the USCOC spent a couple of million to buy the nomination for Tillis. That is a ”victory” bought and paid for by outsiders meddling in our primaries. Tillis was shoved down out throat by outsiders.

          2. You don’t give our Republican voters much credit. Do you mean to say that Rove’s money duped the Republican voters into nominating Tillis without a runoff? I choose to believe that our well-informed Republican voters made their choice on their own. I see it that Tillis had no credible challenger and that is why the ‘strolled’ to victory without even a runoff. No, the Republican primary voters knew the score and voted for the best candidate.

          3. More Republican voters voted for ”Not Tillis” than voted for Tillis. We really do need to change that really stupid Democrat law that allows someone without a majority to avoid a runoff.

            As to what changed in those few weeks between the virtual tie in the polls and the 40 something percent on primary day, the only thing different that happened during that time was Rove, the USCOC, and Hagan’s advertising. I guess you could argue that Hagan helped sucker Republicans into nominating the candidate that was easiest for her to beat, and that could be part of the equation.

            I think the party needs to take a very hard line against outside interference in primaries and if Rove, the NRSC, NRCC, or US Chamber of Commerce start monkeying around in our primary, they ought to be loudly denounced by the local party apparatus.

            Any of the other candidates would be hammering Hagan on her vulnerabilities on issues. And none of the others would have to worry about her withering Blueprint based attacks that have damaged Tillis. Hagan should give Rove a pat on the back after the election. Rove was the key player in getting her the opponent she wanted, the one easiest to beat. It makes you wonder if Rove is just clueless or if he is really working for the other side.

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