NC’s 2026 US Senate race declared ‘toss up’
UVA Professor Larry Sabato and the folks at the school’s Center for Politics are frequently called upon by the drive-by media to analyze the elections we hold every two to four years.
This year, they’re looking especially hard at the races for US Senate. Currently, that chamber has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats — basically a 53-47 partisan split.
You would think that would be a comfortable spread for DC Republicans. But, unfortunately, those 53 Republicans include Republicans-In-Name-Only (RINOs) like Thom Tillis, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins who will run over to the Democrats and screw the Trump White House at the drop of a hat.
Here’s a map detailing Sabato & co.’s current predictions on how November 2026 will go:
As you can see, the states in yellow are the toss-ups. Michigan and Georgia are currently held by Democrats. Maine and North Carolina are currently held by weak RINOs. The best case scenario for Democrats – according to Sabato’s team — is for them to hold those 45 seats, hold what they have in Michigan and Georgia, and pick up North Carolina and Georgia. That would result in a 51-49 split favoring the GOP in the US Senate chamber that would convene in 2027. JD Vance would likely find himself hanging around Capitol Hill a whole lot more.
Things look good for Roy Cooper and the Democrats in North Carolina. Every piece of polling out there has Cooper convincingly defeating GOP establishment champion Michael Whatley. (One recent poll has MAGA standard-bearer Don Brown faring about the same as Whatley against Cooper.)
The Republican National Committee is working overtime to shove Michael Whatley down our throats. It’s hard to excite conservative voters with a candidate who has been meaner toward his own party’s voters than he has to Democrats.
You may remember they tried this before in 2002 with the retirement of the late, great Jesse Helms.
Elizabeth Dole – who last lived here during the LBJ administration – was hauled back home to take up residence in her mama’s house in Salisbury and file for the Senate seat. DC worked overtime to clear the primary field for her.
(An aside – I remember Mrs. Dole revealing in her and Bob’s autobiography that the big reason she switched from Democrat to Republican was so Bob would not be embarrassed professionally. *Quite inspiring.*)
Dole made it through the 2002 election and went on to serve an uninspiring single term. She got her clock cleaned in 2008 by an unknown state senator from Greensboro named Kay Hagan.
Does anyone seriously think this latest flirtation with the RNC will go any better?
RINO Thom Tillis won the seat in 2014 and 2020 by spending gobs of money and never seeing 50 percent of the vote.
The Senate seat up in 2026 was held and successfully defended by Jesse Helms for 30 years (1972-2002). Dole and Tillis accounted for an additional 18 years for the GOP. So, the seat has been in GOP hands for 48 out of the last 54 years.
Roy Cooper has been undefeated in elections – statewide and legislative – for the past 40 years. Is Mike Whatley really the best the GOP establishment has to put forth on the battlefield? Honestly, it looks like a surrender or concession before the fighting even begins.
