Jones Street. The partisan index. And 2020.

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The North Carolina Free Enterprise Foundation, a GOP-leaning establishment pro-business group,  regularly analyzes our General Assembly districts and computes things called partisan indexes.  These are sort of like the spreads that bookies put on sporting events. The history of each party’s performance in each district is taken into account — as is the average victory margin.    By checking out their data, you can get a good feel for how the parties OUGHT to be performing in certain areas.  

 

North Carolina House.   According to NCFEF’s latest info,  the North Carolina House ought to have a 66 (R) to 54 (D) partisan split.   (The House currently has a 65 (R) to 55 (D) split. )

 

NCFEF IDs House district 78 as the strongest Republican district – giving the Republican candidate a 29 percentage point spread over any opposition.   Allen McNeill (R) of Randolph County currently holds that seat.   Patricia Hurley (R), also from Randolph  County, holds the second most Republican district in the House (with a 27 point spread for the Republican candidate).    Steven Jarvis (R) holds the third most Republican district in the House (with a  26 percentage point spread for the Republican candidate).

 

Let’s look at what NCFEF sees as the most competitive Republican seats. District 103 near Charlotte is IDed as Republican but has a big fat ZERO for the percentage point spread between the parties.   Rachel Hunt (D) defeated long-time incumbent Bill Brawley (R) in 2018.  (Brawley is apparently seeking a rematch this year.)

 

House District 63,  held by Stephen Ross (R), is the second most competitive GOP-leaning seat.  It only has a ONE point spread between the Republican and Democrat candidates.

 

Let’s look at House Democrats.  Kelly Alexander (D), from the Charlotte area, has the least competitive Democrat-leaning district (with a  FIFTY percentage point spread between the Democrat and Republican candidates).   House Districts 98 and 24 are the MOST c0mpetitive Democrat-held seats, according to NCFEF.   Both have a big fat ZERO for the point spread.  Jean Farmer-Butterfield (D) holds District 24, while Christy Clark (D) holds district 98.

 

NC Senate.  Eddie  Gallimore (R)  holds district 29, which is the least competitive Republican leaning seat in the chamber.  It has a percentage point margin of 22 dividing the Republican from the Democrat candidate.

 

District 19 is one of  the two most competitive Republican-leaning seats.  Kirk DeViere (D) knocked off Wesley Meredith (R) there in 2018.  (It appears Meredith is aiming for a 2020 rematch.)  Senate District 9,  held by Harper Peterson (D) of Wilmington, is the other.  Peterson defeated incumbent Mike Lee (R) in 2018.