NC Free Enterprise Foundation’s partisan index study also took a look at the state’s congressional districts for 2020. For all the whining lefties did about “gerrymandering,” they sure did come out smelling like roses. According to NCFEF, the Dems have MORE clearly safe seats / good pickup opportunities than the Republicans do.
According to the partisan index study, North Carolina’s 3rd congressional district is the least competitive Republican-held district (R+50). Basically, that means anyone not registered Republican is going to have a whale of a time capturing that seat.
The 11th, represented by Mark Meadows, is R+11, and the 10th, held by Patrick McHenry, is R+10.
The Triangle-centered 4th district is the least competitive Democrat-held seat (D+25). So, anyone without a (D) next to their name would have a heck of an uphill climb here. The 12th, represented by Alma Adams (D), is D+23, while GK Butterfield’s 1st district is D+19. That also suggests an uphill climb for Republicans. AND it makes it harder to understand why there is a gaggle of Republicans running in the primary for the honor of challenging Butterfield.
Dan Bishop’s 9th District has an index rating of R+1 — which means a Republican CAN win, but he’ll have a real fight on his hands.
The second is R+3, which means a solid Dem could be competitive there. (George Holding (R) is not running for reelection there.)
NCFEF gives Mark Walker’s (R) Sixth district a R+7 rating. A solid, well-funded Republican COULD hold this seat. (Walker is not running for reelection.) But the Dems could also be very competitive here.