Campaign polling ???????



Yes, indeed.  Perhaps it’s time to interrupt the wall-to-wall COVID talk to remind ourselves there is a pretty big election coming up in a few months.  Cardinal Point Analytics of Raleigh conducted some phone polling of likely North Carolina voters between July 13 and July 15.  (Their work has a margin-of-error of +/- 4.2 percent.)

Polling has been getting more and more wildly erratic  with the advent of cell phones, unlisted numbers, and caller ID.  (I believe a total of ONE poll picked Thom Tillis to beat Kay Hagan in 2014.)

With that out of the way,  let’s look at some findings:

  • Donald Trump – 48.6%, Joe Biden 47.7%
  • Cal Cunningham – 47.3%, Thom Tillis – 44.2%
  • Roy Cooper — 49%, Dan Forest 46.4%
  • Mark Robinson — 43%, Yvonne Holley 39.1% (17% undecided)

ALL of these are within the margin of error and / or have large undecided blocs.  So that means we’ve got a pack of close races staring at us right now.


Mark Robinson, the GOP lieutenant governor nominee, should take some pride in his showing.  As an amateur / rookie candidate,  he’s leading career politician and Raleigh fixture Yvonne Holley. Something tells me this race will depend on how the governor’s race goes.