Poll numbers for NC GOV: McCrory continues slide, Dalton climbs

Things are really tightening up in the race for North Carolina governor.   Pat McCrory, the former mayor of Charlotte and a renowned moderate, is the GOP standard bearer against incumbent Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton.

McCrory was the GOP nominee in 2008 — losing a close race to Bev Perdue in a VERY Democrat year.  He’s been running for governor ever since his concession speech that year.

Yet, the polling numbers that have gone public MUST be of some concern to his campaign team.  In February, he was polling at 49 percent.   Now, he’s at 46 percent.   So, he’s at -3  over the last six months.   (If Team McCrory had better internal polling numbers, they’d have leaked them by now.) 

By comparison, Dalton was polling at 30 percent in February.  The latest Rasmussen poll has him at 41 percent in a head-to-head match with McCrory.  That puts the Democrat at +11 over the last six months.

So, Rasmussen has the race at 46-41 for McCrory  now.  On June 25, they had the race at 49-35 in favor of McCrory.  Talk about a slide. 

We STILL have three more months of campaign — PLUS the DNC convention in our state.  So, things could get even stickier for the McCrory camp.

I saw an analysis by NC Civitas that suggested McCrory has some trouble within the Tea Party / conservative wing of the base.  A  John Locke Foundation analysis of the voting results in 2008 found that Republicans in Pat’s HOME COUNTY did not turn out for him in that race against Perdue.  Judging from what I’m hearing these days from Mecklenburg County, those problems are STILL there.

Ol’ Pat missed an incredible PR opportunity on August 1 — a/k/a Chick-fil-A Appreciation Day.  Tea Party-aligned folks turned out in droves to show support for the franchise as it was subjected to withering attacks from the left and its media lapdogs.   Every politician seeking conservative votes in November put out pictures of themselves in close proximity to Chick-fil-A restaurants or products.   (Lt. Gov candidate Dan Forest and DPI superintendent candidate John Tedesco were two high-profile examples here in the state.) 

Yet, Pat was conspicuously absent from that whole event.  One could say that he was trying not to irritate his moderate friends in Charlotte.   But, let’s face it — who are the Chick-fil-A haters most likely to vote for in November, anyway?  Pat NEEDS those folks who flooded Chick-fil-A restaurants on Aug 1 to mob polling places FOR HIM on November 6.