Even MORE polling!

As we get closer and closer to Election Day, we are being pelted with polling data.  Veteran election watchers will tell you what polls are like.  (*Everybody has got one!*)

Leading off at bat is CNN.  You know, the folks behind the scandal that has turned our governor’s race upside down.

CNN has Trump and Harris tied in North Carolina at 49 percent apiece.

The CNN poll — taken 9/20 to 9/25 — gives Josh Stein a 53-36 percent lead over Mark Robinson in the gubernatorial race.   Seriously, though.  What else did you expect it to say?

Prior to – and just after – the breaking of their big story on Mark Robinson’s alleged Internet browsing habits 16 years ago, most polls had the race with a 5 to 10 percent margin for Stein.  It was *important* for CNN’s polling to show that the network’s reporting made a difference.

Just for giggles, let’s check CNN’s polling performance in past North Carolina gubernatorial races.   CNN polled the 2020 governor’s race in North Carolina from October 23 to October 30.  They had Cooper defeating Dan Forest 52-42 percent. (Final result that year?  Cooper 51.5, Forest 47.1.)

Let’s go back to 2016.  Roy Cooper won the governor’s race over Pat McCrory 49.0-48.2 percent.  

CNN last polled the 2016 race from 10/10 to 10/15.  That poll projected a 49-49 tie.

Now, let’s move back to 2024 and The Meredith poll.  

This poll was taken from 9/17 to 9/20.  It projects a 48-48 tie for Trump and Harris.  

For the governor’s race, Meredith found a ten point lead for Stein.  But they found this interesting tidbit:

[…] The first two days of data collection showed the electoral gap between Josh Stein and Mark Robinson at about 8 points–50-42. However, the group that answered the Meredith survey after the story broke had a 13-point gap (50-37). In the end, this survey indicates that Josh Stein has a double-digit lead over Robinson (50-40), but it appears that the CNN story peeled Robinson supporters away from him without adding to Stein’s support. Robinson’s support remains among conservative, rural, and older voters, but not from elsewhere.

“The CNN story clearly had an impact on voter perceptions, but Robinson’s campaign was already struggling against the Stein campaign,” said David McLennan. “It is worth noting, however, that we have seen this story before in North Carolina governor’s races. The Republican candidate, like Dan Forest, was running well behind Roy Cooper in September and October polls, only to lose on Election Day by 4.5 points. This shows the power of political partisanship in North Carolina.” […] 

Last, but not least, let’s take a gander at the latest offering from Fox News.  They polled the state from 9/20 to 9/24.  They show a 56-40 lead for Josh Stein.  (Fox’s last poll, at the end of August, showed a 54-43 edge for Stein. )

Fox’s polling also shows a 50-48 lead for Kamala Harris in North Carolina.