ANOTHER POLL: Cooper over Whatley — by fourteen ????

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Catawba College and YouGov have partnered on a survey of North Carolina voters about the 2026 vote. Here’s what they found:

[…] In the first test of the U.S. Senate race, former Governor Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by fourteen points, 48 percent to 34 percent among likely voters (including those who initially said they were undecided but lean toward a candidate), with 14 percent undecided. Without leaners, Cooper holds a 47 percent to 31 percent advantage.

“What stands out is the contrast between the Senate race and the broader partisan environment,” Bitzer said. “Cooper’s double-digit lead, even as both parties have relatively weak standing, suggests voters are potentially responding more to the candidate’s familiarity and profile than to party labels alone, with some openness to crossing party lines. Cooper has shown this in his past runs, and early on it looks like he is continuing this trend.” […] 

In other words, it sounds like “TRUMPTRUMPTRUMPTRUMP” and “I’m a Republican, and HE’S NOT” are not working.  (By the way, 14 points is about where Stein and Robinson finished in November 2024.  It’s still a long way to November for us.) 

MORE:

[…] “The former governor also benefits from a strong Democratic base of support, while almost half of independent likely voters are inclined to vote for Cooper. While Whatley has three-quarters of Republican likely voters supporting him, only 27 percent of independents support him at this point in the contest.”

Differences in candidate familiarity may help explain the gap. Cooper’s approval stands at 48 percent statewide, with strong support among Democrats and nearly half of independents.

By contrast, 44 percent of North Carolinians say they are unfamiliar with Whatley. Among those who do recognize him, opinion is evenly split: 28 percent favorable and 28 percent unfavorable. Notably, a significant share of Republicans and nearly half of independents report not knowing enough about Whatley to form an opinion.

“When it comes to Whatley’s standing, there is still a sizable portion of his own party and independents who are unfamiliar with him,” Bitzer said. “And yet, he still garners strong support from Republican identifiers, which underscores the role of partisan loyalty in shaping early preferences.” […]

Add this to the massive list of polls since July showing Cooper leads with NONE for Whatley.

This is the second consecutive election cycle where the NCGOP hierarchy has decided to follow this template with a top-of-the-ticket statewide race: pretend there is no primary, hand-pick a candidate and then clamp down on any potential challengers. 

Worked *wonderfully* in 2024.  Proceeding *spectacularly* in 2026.