NCFEF study illustrates tough task ahead for Dems in NCGA

The NC Free Enterprise Foundation, a Raleigh-based non-partisan pro-business group, has released an analysis showing just how tough it will be for the Democrats to take back the state House ANYTIME SOON. 

The NCFEF partisan breakdown takes into consideration the new districts that will be in effect for this May and November.  The study reveals:

  • 34 Strong Democrat districts
  • 10 Lean Democrat  districts
  • 10 Swing districts
  • 18 Leaning Republican districts
  • 48 Strong Republican districts

There are 120 total seats in the N.C. House.  If NCFEF’s logic holds, and each party wins all of their strong and lean seats, you will have a 66-44 GOP majority with 10 seats left that could go either way.  The NCGOP would need to grab only 4 of those 10 to obtain a veto-proof majority.

As of today, there are 29 NC House seats that will be OPEN — with no incumbent — for the May and November votes.  NCFEF suggests that — due to the large number of open seats in 2010 and 2012 — more than half of the state House members serving in the 2013 session will be in their first or second term.