Polls in NC GOV race starting to skew left
For the longest time, polling of the gubernatorial race in NC has been showing Republican Mark Robinson either tied or ahead of Democrat Josh Stein. Polling throughout this month has the Democrat Stein leading anywhere from five points to fourteen points. And we’ve got 75 days to go until Election Day.
High Point University — in partnership with SurveyUSA — released a poll today of registered voters showing Stein leading Robinson 48% to 34 percent. The same poll has Democrat Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in the state by one percent — 46 to 45. (High Point’s last poll on the governor’s race — three months ago — had Robinson leading Stein 39 to 34 percent. )
The NY Times / Siena poll released last Saturday had Stein with a ten-point lead — 49 to 39 percent.
An August 16 poll by the Cook Political Report and BSG had Stein with a seven point lead — 43% to 36 percent. In May, Cook Political Report had the race tied.
An August 15 poll sponsored by The Telegraph showed Stein with a six point lead — 45% to 39 percent.
A Carolina Journal / Sygnal Poll released on August 9 had Stein with a five point lead — 43 to 38 percent.
Just to compare, Dan Forest (R) lost to Roy Cooper (D) in 2020 by a margin of 51.5 % to 47 percent. Emerson’s October 14 poll was the closest to the actual final margin in that race. Emerson last polled the 2024 gubernatorial race on April 30. That survey had Robinson ahead 42% to 41 percent.
Polling tends to get a lot more accurate as we get closer to the voting. Pollsters are interested in getting hired for future election cycles. A lot of bragging rights among pollsters are at stake as well.
There is one significant thing to worry about here in North Carolina for Republicans if this polling trend is accurately telling the story of the gubernatorial race. If a sense arises that Stein is comfortably ahead, the Democrats and other liberal groups can free up money they had earmarked for Stein and re-route it to down-ballot Democrats.
This just makes me smile. I thought all the X loving Margoo following people were going to make the difference. We had a great candidate. His name was Dale Folwell. It’s early. I hope he wins, but this is just so funny.
It’s amazing you are so myopic you can’t get behind the candidate for reasons other than hate. He’s *the* candidate. He won the primary but you’re stuck in the “primary” past. We need Mark Robinson to win to control the NCSBOE. Republicans control the NCSBOE if the GOVERNOR is a REPUBLICAN.
You can look at statistical data and see the poll is BS.Percentage NC Gov candidate won by:
2020
GOV 4.51%*
2016
Gov 2.04%
2012
Gov 1.83%
2008
Gov 1.989%
2004
Gov 1.798%
Let’s not forget WE have been forced to vote:
McCrory
Forest
Tillis
Burr
And then there was:
McCain
Dole
Romney
And someone wants to act as if supporting Gov ticket is NOW the line in the sand.
I’ve placed my principles on the proverbial shelf for decades…..
MARGONWNC. I thought you and your thousands of followers Mark would be up big. Yes, I’m going to vote for him, but he and Trump are going to lose. They both can’t stay focused on a message. Plus have nuts like you who are making the chances crash.
Robinson has been a real dud as Lt. Governor, running the other way whenever conservative principles came up, and would likely be a dud as governor – think McCrory in blackface – but socialist strongman Josh (Franken)Stein is downright evil and a big horror story.
There is a difference between Tillis who is actively liberal and therefore evil, and Robinson who is just dumb as a brick and afraid of his own shadow when it comes to standing for important issues.
You are smiling? I voted for Falwell, too, but it does not make me “smile” to hear that the polls indicate Stein is seriously ahead. Surely you do not want Stein in the Governor’s mansion?
No doubt the ads (child care) have hurt Robinson and no doubt the lib, women-left, dems are absolutely destroyed by any mention of abortion. Anti-Robinson’s ad about women, rape, abortion certainly hurt as well. The ads he ran really didn’t offset the damage, IMO.
Stein has lots of $$$ and is running ads full-time.
Hope Robinson can pull off an upset here and generate much needed momentum late summer and early fall.
“Let’s not forget We have been forced to vote” for……..
It’s very interesting jwmson that you have been “forced” to vote! You may need to look for inner self-strength and not let anyone or thing “force” you to vote for someone you do not support.
FORCED, as THEY were the candidate those YOU seem to espouse are so great in picking/selecting candidates FOR US placed on the ticket. NONE of those were MY CHOICE or 1st choice in the primary.
Neither was Robinson,
But as history has shown, I WILL hold my nose, my thumb and my breathe and pull the Robinson lever.
But please don’t come here on your high horse and comeuppance preaching to me….
The Biggest difference between Big Mark and McCroy. Mcrory won his race. Mark and the crazy people who fought for his win are probably going to lose. I’m going to vote for him, but he and his crazy friends have created this and if he win congrats, but if he loses. I know who to blame for it. Vote the Nuts out!
Yes, It’s August so let’s hope this doesn’t matter. We tried all the same stuff with Obama. Calling him a Socialist. Never worked. This group only like positive stuff, but time to step in real ville. Today, Trump and Big Obama are going to lose. Trump can claim voter fraud. Don’t think the public will buy it. Most Republicans in NC are going to win. Now, let the same Jackels attack me. I plan to vote for Trump and Mark. Just running terrible campaigns.
If you listen to the partisan Democrat media that styles itself the MSM, they present all they can that is negative on Trump and cover up all that is negative on Harris. There are several factors, though, that give hope that they will not pull the wool over voters eyes. One is that the polls show that an increasing majority of Americans have figured out the MSM’s bias and don’t trust it. Second is that Harris has a real record on the big issues that voters care about, and she is on the wrong side of those issues. Trump is getting his message on those issues around the MSM blockade and needs to do more of it.
Trump also needs to sharpen his attacks on the media, and instead of calling it “fake news” use the much more direct term of “partisan Democrat media”. One remembers Jesse Helms constantly pointing out that he was running against seven oppoents, the Democrat nominee and the editors of the six largest newspapers in the state.
As to vote fraud, the Democrats are already organizing that and denying the GOP the opportunity to do basic poll watching. A good example is in the largest county, Wayne (Detroit) in the swing state of Michigan where Democrat election officials have approved only 50 GOP pollwatchers out of the 700 trained observers the party submitted by allowed the Democrats 2,300 pollwatchers. That is fundamentally unfair, and big city machines are where elections are stolen. Heck the 1960 election for president was stolen by the Daly machine in Chicago.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/08/lara-trump-reveals-only-50-700-gop-poll/
I think somebody needs to take the Tin Hats off. The election has not started and we saying it’s rigged.
Hopefully we can find one judge out of the sixty last time who would support us.
This is one of the ways you rig elections, not allowing your opponents to have their election observers for election day:
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/08/lara-trump-reveals-only-50-700-gop-poll/
And this is THE key county in an imporant swing state, and we are seeing banana republic tactics by the Democrats there.
Thank goodness, this election could be very bad for the GOP. Trump runs around and complains about the Communist race and meanwhile prices are going up. Big Mark talks about girl’s keeping there skirts down while he is having an abortion with his girlfriend now wife. The nuts in our party meanwhile excuse it…
I know Mark would be better, but I also know he’s a trainwreck and you need fifty percent +1 to win. This small group gets mad when anyone speaks truth. Here’s the “truth” – Big Mark is going to lose because of Big Mark.
Trump has a very successful record as president and is running against someone who is part of an administration that has been an absolute disaster. Trump is getting the message out on economics, the key issue with voters, along with crime and immigration, such as this excellent ad:
https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1828184902648393890
Jwmson, they definitely were not my choice either but that’s the way our primary system works.
On that we agree . Let’s do our part to put the governorship back on Republican side, same for Lt, AG & courts. God knows we need republicans in those seats, not Dems. Same for Education.
Let’s also hope Dale resurrects quickly into a position of service .Hopefully in NC. Really going to miss his role & watchdog approach after November.
I just don’t know if Trump wants to win or just wants to make money. He’s talking about not debating and I don’t know how we change this race without a debate. The media is not going to help. The nuts are not going to help.
Concur. I believe it’s all about the image, the prestige, the travel, the bravado for him
WHAT are the issues? WHAT are his plans. All we hear, MAGA…how/what is THE plan to make America great, rather than make HIM great? He has totally turned me off. The attacks, the 2020 election, the PAST…It’s the past. What’s the future? Not that KH has any plans either. She doesn’t and won’t but turning votes, gaining support and momentum is NOT his forte at all.
It is Kamala who has already chickened out of one debate on Fox and is crawfishing by wanting to change the rules for the debate on ABC. That is in spite of ABC being owned by Disney, and Disney’s exec overseeing ABC being a longtime friend and major campaign contributor of Kamala Harris.
Don’t rely on the MSM for any of your election “information” as they are in the tank for Kamala Harris and her “Kamunism”.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/kamunism-ny-post_16x9-1024×576.png
As I prepare to cast my vote, I’m planning to support Donald Trump and Mark Robinson. However, if their campaigns face significant losses, it might signal a turning point for us all.
Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 was a narrow one, and the events of January 6th were a national embarrassment. He lost 2020 folks. He keeps talking about it, but he did. While Trump has a dedicated following, I believe it’s crucial to critically evaluate his leadership and its impact on our country. If he and Robinson don’t succeed in their campaigns, both will likely continue to benefit financially from their public profiles. Mark Robinson could find a successful platform with Fox News, where his skills could be effectively utilized, and Trump will continue to be well-supported by his base. Let me throw Michelle Marrow in there. Not because of the ideas, but she has said some nutty things.
Ultimately, my hope is that if both of them lose, we can move past the divisive rhetoric and work towards a more balanced and productive political climate.
Yea! Marxism!!
Friends, I don’t know about you, but I believe very few polls. They almost ALWAYS significantly over-sample democrats, which produces exactly the results the pollsters and the dem/commies want–to discourage Republicans to the point we don’t donate to, work for, or vote for worthy GOP candidates. It’s all part of the psychological warfare the commies are so good at! Don’t buy into it!
Folks you got two options
Kamala ( San Fran ) Harris or Donald Trump
same for Governor race
Josh ( Chapel Hill ) Stein or Mark Robinson
Its easy for me.
I’m all in for Trump and Robinson
And i’ll do anything i can to help them win.
The alternative is unthinkable.
Anyone who has got two eyes and a brain can see that Mark is going to lose this fall. Commie Josh is awful, but Mark’s got no one to blame but himself. He and his wife are scamming lowlifes, he’s run a terrible campaign, and the worst part is that our people waved him on through his primary without a care. I voted DALE FOLWELL for a reason!!!
I’ve said it before and will again – CONSTITUTION PARTY. My Republican Party has left me. The guys we have in Raleigh are no better than the Democrats when they go vote, but worse, they lie to our faces about what they stand for. BULLSHIT. I am sick and tired of their corrupt lies, and also of those useful idiots (some mentioned above) who blabber on social media about stuff they are completely ignorant about.
Conservatives have one option in this election: the Constitution Party. It’s how I’m voting. You should, too.
I will be proud to cast my vote for Vinny Smith, the independent choice, from the Constitution Party. I will not hold my nose, my breath or my ass and vote for the corrupt Josh Stein or Big Mark Robinson. I will also be spreading the word!
Vinny Smith for Governor
And he’s going to win?
And your point will be, while being governed by Josh Stein?
IS Robinson THE WORST republican you have ever considered voting for?
I voted Murphy, Tillis, McCain, Romney, both Bushes, Burr and the list can go on and on…..
I’ll be the first to admit the NCGOP is one screwed up outfit. Outright pathetic. Even so, you’ve got to work real hard to exceed the UN-Democratic Party. This year the Un-Democrats, of superdelegate primary fame, upped the ante by even wiping out THEIR rotten primary and installing CommieLaLa and Whacko Walz – neither of which has earned one primary vote. This pro-coup party of joy now claims to be saving democracy.
If all things were equal, I would be inclined to vote Smith for governor. I just can’t bring myself to aid little comrade Josh after all those years of Red communalist Gomer. Yeah, yeah, I know I’m the guy that never has and never will vote for Tillis. Book me a psychiatrist on that one.
I guess I’ll just vote for Trump, Robinson and Morrow, lock the bunker door and break out the MREs.
At least I can honestly say, I didn’t vote for this crap, we as NC citizen’s are being dealt. jwmson, you will have to say, I voted for this crap, that we as NC citizen’s are being dealt. If you vote D or R, you remain part of the problem. We all know both, D and R governor candidate’s are corrupt. You may claim but I voted R, (being you predicted D to win) but you voted, what you thought was best of 2 evils. My conscious will be clear.
Ditto. I don’t owe the GOP crap. THEY left ME when their whole corrupt little gang in Raleigh went sideways.
I am and have always been a TRUE CONSERVATIVE. I don’t know what the hell the GOP is anymore. I won’t be frog in a boiling pot any more.
AND we all agree on here. How does it play out and change locally, regionally and state-wide?
How do we get control of gop? I don’t see a way ? I see more horsepower than ever being wielded by leadership.
GOP has LEFT me way long ago. Other than Causey & Folwell and a few judges, I don’t have any favorites.
I don’t believe we can name very many principled, conservative, Jesse Helms republicans in NC?
I can’t.
Yeah, I am excited about voting for Causey and I wish Folwell was on the ballot somewhere. I’m also excited about voting for a couple of conservative county commission candidates and some conservative school board candidates. I’m pretty sure my local Republican Party is not nearly as locked in on the school board candidates and is without doubt in opposition to the commission candidates. So much for being a conservative Republican these days.
Whoever continues to vote D or R, when you know both candidates are corrupt, continues to be part of the problem. I will say it again, you are voting, what you consider the best of 2 evils. As my old friend use to say, part of the dumb masses. Not me!! Vinny Smith for Governor.
That or a Libertarian or other tiny party is only a protest vote. There are times a protest vote makes sense, but generally not when there is a chance of getting a somewhat better candidate into office. All the Balanced Nutrition stuff does not bother me nearly as much as Robinson continually running away from conservative issues as Lt. Gov.
Anyone running for public office ought to seriously consider what personal or political baggage they have. If they know about it themselves, there is every chance the opposition will find out about it and use it. Mark Robinson let us all down by not thinking through that part and now we are stuck with him. But even if he were squeaky clean on those matters, the way he has handled, or in most cases avoided, issues as Lt. Governor would still leave me with little enthusiasm for him.
Robinson is not being realistic about polling trends. It is one thing to be behind and closing the gap but quite another to be behind with a widening gap.