Polls in NC GOV race starting to skew left
For the longest time, polling of the gubernatorial race in NC has been showing Republican Mark Robinson either tied or ahead of Democrat Josh Stein. Polling throughout this month has the Democrat Stein leading anywhere from five points to fourteen points. And we’ve got 75 days to go until Election Day.
High Point University — in partnership with SurveyUSA — released a poll today of registered voters showing Stein leading Robinson 48% to 34 percent. The same poll has Democrat Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in the state by one percent — 46 to 45. (High Point’s last poll on the governor’s race — three months ago — had Robinson leading Stein 39 to 34 percent. )
The NY Times / Siena poll released last Saturday had Stein with a ten-point lead — 49 to 39 percent.
An August 16 poll by the Cook Political Report and BSG had Stein with a seven point lead — 43% to 36 percent. In May, Cook Political Report had the race tied.
An August 15 poll sponsored by The Telegraph showed Stein with a six point lead — 45% to 39 percent.
A Carolina Journal / Sygnal Poll released on August 9 had Stein with a five point lead — 43 to 38 percent.
Just to compare, Dan Forest (R) lost to Roy Cooper (D) in 2020 by a margin of 51.5 % to 47 percent. Emerson’s October 14 poll was the closest to the actual final margin in that race. Emerson last polled the 2024 gubernatorial race on April 30. That survey had Robinson ahead 42% to 41 percent.
Polling tends to get a lot more accurate as we get closer to the voting. Pollsters are interested in getting hired for future election cycles. A lot of bragging rights among pollsters are at stake as well.
There is one significant thing to worry about here in North Carolina for Republicans if this polling trend is accurately telling the story of the gubernatorial race. If a sense arises that Stein is comfortably ahead, the Democrats and other liberal groups can free up money they had earmarked for Stein and re-route it to down-ballot Democrats.
This just makes me smile. I thought all the X loving Margoo following people were going to make the difference. We had a great candidate. His name was Dale Folwell. It’s early. I hope he wins, but this is just so funny.
It’s amazing you are so myopic you can’t get behind the candidate for reasons other than hate. He’s *the* candidate. He won the primary but you’re stuck in the “primary” past. We need Mark Robinson to win to control the NCSBOE. Republicans control the NCSBOE if the GOVERNOR is a REPUBLICAN.
You can look at statistical data and see the poll is BS.Percentage NC Gov candidate won by:
2020
GOV 4.51%*
2016
Gov 2.04%
2012
Gov 1.83%
2008
Gov 1.989%
2004
Gov 1.798%
Let’s not forget WE have been forced to vote:
McCrory
Forest
Tillis
Burr
And then there was:
McCain
Dole
Romney
And someone wants to act as if supporting Gov ticket is NOW the line in the sand.
I’ve placed my principles on the proverbial shelf for decades…..
MARGONWNC. I thought you and your thousands of followers Mark would be up big. Yes, I’m going to vote for him, but he and Trump are going to lose. They both can’t stay focused on a message. Plus have nuts like you who are making the chances crash.
Robinson has been a real dud as Lt. Governor, running the other way whenever conservative principles came up, and would likely be a dud as governor – think McCrory in blackface – but socialist strongman Josh (Franken)Stein is downright evil and a big horror story.
There is a difference between Tillis who is actively liberal and therefore evil, and Robinson who is just dumb as a brick and afraid of his own shadow when it comes to standing for important issues.
You are smiling? I voted for Falwell, too, but it does not make me “smile” to hear that the polls indicate Stein is seriously ahead. Surely you do not want Stein in the Governor’s mansion?
No doubt the ads (child care) have hurt Robinson and no doubt the lib, women-left, dems are absolutely destroyed by any mention of abortion. Anti-Robinson’s ad about women, rape, abortion certainly hurt as well. The ads he ran really didn’t offset the damage, IMO.
Stein has lots of $$$ and is running ads full-time.
Hope Robinson can pull off an upset here and generate much needed momentum late summer and early fall.
“Let’s not forget We have been forced to vote” for……..
It’s very interesting jwmson that you have been “forced” to vote! You may need to look for inner self-strength and not let anyone or thing “force” you to vote for someone you do not support.
The Biggest difference between Big Mark and McCroy. Mcrory won his race. Mark and the crazy people who fought for his win are probably going to lose. I’m going to vote for him, but he and his crazy friends have created this and if he win congrats, but if he loses. I know who to blame for it. Vote the Nuts out!
Yes, It’s August so let’s hope this doesn’t matter. We tried all the same stuff with Obama. Calling him a Socialist. Never worked. This group only like positive stuff, but time to step in real ville. Today, Trump and Big Obama are going to lose. Trump can claim voter fraud. Don’t think the public will buy it. Most Republicans in NC are going to win. Now, let the same Jackels attack me. I plan to vote for Trump and Mark. Just running terrible campaigns.