ECU poll: Stein up SIX, Trump up ONE
A poll of registered voters from August 26-28 has the Democrat nominee for governor increasing his lead by FIVE points since the first week of June. ECU’s most recent prior poll, taken May 31-June 6, had Trump leading Biden by FIVE points and Josh Stein leading Mark Robinson by ONE.
The most recent poll by ECU seems to line up with the most recent findings of the Emerson poll — which was the most accurate in predicting the final margin of the 2020 governor’s race. Other recent polling has found Stein’s lead to be anywhere between one point and fourteen points. (Dan Forest lost the 2020 governor’s race by 4.5 percent.)
You have to go back to June 3 to find a major, publicly-released poll showing a Robinson lead.
The most recent news cycle has not been kind to the Robinson campaign. There has been continuing coverage of the Balanced Nutrition affair and the Robinsons’ very public fight with the state Department of Health and Human Services (NC DHHS).
In the last few days, allegations from former X-rated video store employees in Greensboro that Robinson regularly patronized their business have been aired statewide and nationally.
Who knows how Election Day will play out. In 2016 and 2020, the state’s voters were ticket-splitters in the races for governor and president. Cooper (D) and Trump (R) were victorious in North Carolina on both occasions.
NCGOP candidates also did quite well in Council of State and legislative races in both of those years.
Thank you goes to the X verse of Margo for giving us this huge turkey. This loss needs to be laid at her feet.
Reading the official poll announcement, I have questions about the polling entity. Most pollsters, and the more accurate ones survey “likely voters” instead of “registered voters” as the latter historically tilts more Democrat than actual results. The official announcement from this pollsters own site on this poll goes back and forth, sometimes saying “likely voters” and sometimes “registered voters” leaving a real question about their competence and who they were actually polling..
Like I have been saying, those who voted for Robinson in the primary instead of Dale Folwell have pretty much already elected Stein, even without meaning to do so.