Posted in campaign 2018 Media NC legislature Politics

#ncga: Both sides claiming lead for Tarte’s Meck senate seat

You know what polls are like.  Everyone’s got one: […Senator Jeff]Tarte’s campaign this week is touting the results of a recent poll that shows him with a 46-43 percent lead. That’s within the 5.7 percent margin of error, but it’s an improvement from previous polls….

Posted in campaign 2018 Congress Media NC legislature NCGOP Politics

Polls! (Yay.)

A couple of recently released polls may be providing some insight into why certain NCGOPe types are trashing President Trump and, in general, losing it. High Point University has released polling showing the generic ballot matchup, R v. D, for November’s NC House races virtually…

Posted in Congress Media NCGOP Politics

#ncpol: About those Civitas polls …

*”Hey, if the flagship political organ of The Pope Empire says things are bad for Republicans, THAT IS NEWS.”* Something like that runs through the mostly-empty heads in driveby media newsrooms (and Democrat campaign offices) across the state every time Civitas releases something that might…

Posted in Media NCGOP Politics

#ncpol: Mr. Popularity

Leftists are all giggly over an Elon poll reportedly demonstrating declining support for Donald Trump in North Carolina.  Republicans counter with a Morning Consult poll showing Roy Cooper as merely the 31st most popular governor in the country. One of the more interesting findings in…

Posted in campaign 2016 Media Politics

Red Wolf tracking poll: Trump HOLDING NC lead

We gave you the earlier polling from Red Wolf Public Sector already.  They’ve followed up on that polling with some tracking of the numbers.  Here is what their follow up (375 likely voters, MOE=+-4.9%) looks like:  President:  Trump 49.6%, Clinton 43.7%  [ 51-42 spread in…

Posted in campaign 2016 Congress Media NCGOP Politics

#ncsen: 2014 vs. 2016

The drive by media is beating us over the head with polls.  One of the best ways to see how valuable — or not — that polling data happens to be is to study the recent past.  We had a Senate race in 2014 where…

Posted in campaign 2016 Congress Media NC legislature Politics

Things to think about before going to the polls

Here we go: HB2. Gov. McCrory explained this beautifully in the second debate.  Too bad the drive bys didn’t give a crap about relaying that information to their dwindling audiences.   HB2 deals ONLY with public facilities.  Like schools, for instance.  The state does not care…

Posted in campaign 2016 Media Politics

Nation’s most accurate pollster in 2012? TIPP. (In 2016, they like Trump.)

We’re getting bombarded with all kinds of polls for the state AND presidential election.  Who do you believe?  Here’s a study based on the 2012 presidential polling:  As Americans’ modes of communication change, the techniques that produce the most accurate polls seems to be changing…

Posted in campaign 2016 Media Politics

#ncpol: It’s ALL about the top of the ticket

I’ve had some recent conversations with some behind the scenes heavy-hitters in North Carolina politics.   Their common message, from both sides of the aisle? : Pay no attention to all of these polls.  ALL of the statewide races are neck-and-neck.   Said one veteran strategist:…

Posted in campaign 2016 Media NC legislature NCGOP Politics

#ncga: Sources say NC House GOP polling shows disaster in Wake, Meck races

It may be in bad taste to reference hurricanes right now — given that much of the state is still recovering from Matthew’s flooding. But pollsters hired by the NC House Republicans are describing the caucus’s prospects in two of the state’s largest counties as…