#ncsen: Rasmussen says Hagan 47, Tillis 46
This whole polling exercise just proves you can make numbers say anything you want them to say. Today, we’ve been told Tillis is down by 1, down by 3, up by 5 and down by 1. All on the same day, all in the same state.
The Rasmussen survey was done with 982 likely voters oct 28-29. MOE is +-3 percent. Again, this poll only looks at Hagan v. Tillis. Three percent like “someone else” and another 3 percent are “undecided.”
Thirty percent of respondents said they had already voted. Hagan led that group 50-44. Only 29 percent of respondents said the country is on the right track. Roughly 90 percent of respondents said they had already made up their mind. According to Rasmussen, that group was evenly divided between Hagan and Tillis.
Rasmussen came in third in 2008 in terms of being closest to the actual final Senate election result.
Poll or no polls, Tillis had better find a way to motivate conservatives to turn out to vote—which he has yet to do. He has only four days left to salvage this train wreck.
Even “likely voters” can change their minds and decide not to bother. I still think the most indicative numbers are early voting percentages. Looks at the Dem turnout now versus 2010. Look at the ratio of woman and minority voters. I expect Tillis will lose by several percentage points – the news media will react like “nobody saw it coming”
The pollsters are a fraud. Stop enabling them.
http://youtu.be/wySaC_z12GY
These next few days are the most important ever for the NC Tea Party. The only way the Tea Party can remain a force in NC politics is for Hagan to win. A Tillis victory will destroy the Tea Party here in the Old North State.
The NC Tea Party must stand strong and deliver the victory to Kay Hagan. That will show the Republicans that unless you nominate a fruitcake we will not support the ticket.
I think the above scenario is an episode of the ‘Three Stooges.”
At any rate have at it. We have survived with Kay so far so 6 more years will not make much difference. I truly believe Kay will introduce a bill to eliminate all tholl roads in the US.
I understand that strong conservatives do not like Tillis (or Karl Rove) and that they would have preferred a different, more limited government type of nominee. They wanted someone like Rand Paul, Mike Lee, or Ted Cruz to represent us. However, by hoping for a Tillis loss to show the Republicans the conservative have to be reckoned with, is at cross purpose with their more liberty, less government, long-term goals.
By voting for Tillis, Conservatives actually vault Cruz, Lee, and Paul up the power chain in the Senate. Currently these three are vocal advocates only for a cause, with no power to move any Constitutional legislation. They are bit players in the minority party. But by creating a Republican Majority in the Senate, these champions of liberty, could actually move the party, and country, back towards our Constitutional Republic that Conservatives long for.
By selfishly voting for the short term principles, they inhibit their own long term goals.
Tillis by two, thanks to Houston.