NC Spin crew sounds off on November races
I tuned in to this poor-man’s version of “The McLaughlin Group” this morning to see what kind of wisdom would be imparted upon me and the handful of other viewers.
Democrat campaign consultant Brad Crone says Insurance Commissioner Wayne Goodwin, a Democrat, is in the hottest water of any of the Council of State incumbents. Crone says eastern North Carolina — particularly coastal voters — will do Goodwin in over the hike in homeowner insurance rates for coastal communities. (Greensboro’s Mike Causey is challenging Goodwin.)
John Hood , of the John Locke Foundation, opined that Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and Treasurer Janet Cowell appear to be the strongest of the Democrat incumbents on The Council of State.
Never mind the videotape of Elaine playing kissy-face with Occupy Wall Street that is all over YouTube, or her office’s non-involvement in recent federal busts of NC-based Ponzi schemes. Never mind all of the questions surrounding Cowell, Erskine Bowles, and the ill-fated investment of state retirement funds in the disastrous Facebook IPO. Last time I checked, the state employees association is pretty ticked at Cowell. They have taken the rather unusual step of failing to endorse in that race. (Republican Ed Goodwin is challenging Marshall, while Republican Steve Royal is challenging Cowell.)
Crone sees the 7th congressional district race between incumbent Democrat Mike McIntyre and Republican state senator David Rouzer as very interesting. The district is 54 percent Republican, and Crone sees it as Rouzer’s to lose. Crone says McIntyre is “taking it to” Rouzer with a million dollar campaign war chest.
Crone — who is working for Democrat Linda Coleman in the lieutenant governor race — says he sees state Democrats’ fortunes rising or falling with Coleman’s campaign.
Most of the panelists saw Republicans — in the worst case — picking up ONE congressional seat in the state delegation or — best case — picking up TWO.
I disagree with Brad Crone. He failed to say that Insur Commish Goodwin is ahead of Causey in all the legitimate polls, and that Goodwin has rejected rate increases. Crone is confusing what the insurance industry asked for and what Goodwin has actually done — which is, goodwin lowered or rejected rates.
Well, no, Goodwin royally screwed the east by allowing insurance rates to be based on the alchemy of ”computer models” rather than on real honest actual data. Computer modela can be set up to show whatever result you want, as the Global Warmists have repeatedly shown in their flim-flam models.
Goodwin needs to go!
Raphael — you’re NOT correct … It was Goodwin’s predecessor, Jim Long, that did what you accuse Goodwin of and the courts upheld Long’s decision after Goodwin was elected and in office. The facts are these regarding Insurance Commissioner Goodwin: Goodwin REJECTED the 2011 filing for insurance increases to dwellings (and he’s being sued by insurance companies for that) and he hasn’t accepted the recent 2012 homeowners insurance filing either. So, eastern North Carolina has reason to applaud Goodwin for that. And, by the way, THE LAW – as revised by and supported by eastern legislators, in a bill sponsored by the east’s own Senator Harry Brown in 2012, acknowledged and required computer models to be part of any rate consideration along with historic data. So, surely you’re not advocating for our Insurance commissioner Goodwin to break the law.
Harry Brown is not someone I have ever had any use for, going back to his sleazy sell-out on the lottery. He also was part of the sell-out to water down the illegal immigration bill in order to please the special interests in a sleazy backroom deal. Republicans and ocnservatives are also sick of him over his promoting a major Democrat contributor and Purdue airplane provider to run against Norm Sanderson in the GOP Senate primary. Harry Brosn is a piece of absolute rubbish and the sooner he is out of the Senate the better. Whose water he was carrying on this insurance issue is hard to say, but it was clearly not that of his constituents.
I’m surprised that someone from the Sandhills & Moore County would be taking the side of folks with million dollar mansions on the beach. Maybe Raphael, as people say, is “not from around here?” Even though I’m not a Goodwin fan, I do know that he has opposed the rate increases.
It is not just ”million dollar mansions on the beach” but middle class homeowners quite far inland.
Real data are FACTS. Computer model projections are speculative bullcrap, and often manipulated speculative bullcrap. Any system that bases rates on the latter instead of the former is corrupt and unfair.
Then you need to talk to your legislator & take it up with them to change the law. They updated the law about models in 2012 (allowing a mix of a model and historical facts)AND they put in statute way back in the 1990s that coastal counties are 18 specific counties, which is your point about the middle class homeowners inland. You’re blaming Goodwin for something he didn’t create. In fact, Goodwin only follows the law written by the state legislators and interpreted by the courts.
I must chuckle, though … if you totally wipe out reliance on computer model projections altogether, then that wipes out your evening weather forecast which, after all, is based on computer models these days.
Real historical data are honest facts. Computer models, especially for things far in the future is cooking the books with manipulation of facts, sort of like what the Global Warmists were caught doing in Climategate. The Global Warmists computer models have proven to be way off, and so have the insurance companies’ computer models. Computer models are nothing but electronic alchemy. Consumers should get rebates on excessive premiums charged as a result of the fraudulent computer models used by the insurance industry.
The 18 counties include some which do not even touch the coast.
Insurance premiums should be based on real and provable data, not on concocted computer model fiction.