#ncpol: An interesting observation

Here’s The Winston-Salem Journal: 

[…] According to complete but unofficial results, Cooper won early voting statewide 1.52 million to 1.34 million, while McCrory won Electionkermit Day by an 845,579 to 681,035 margin.

The absentee vote to date is 89,920 for McCrory and 80,989 for Cooper.

McCrory appears to have inspired “ticket splitting” among Republicans. That means Republicans choosing not to vote for McCrory, while voting for President-elect Donald Trump in his commanding win in the state and for U.S. Sen. Richard Burr and Lt. Gov. Dan Forest in their successful re-election bids.

Before provisional and absentee ballots were counted, McCrory received 62,909 fewer votes statewide than Trump. He had 93,527 fewer votes than Forest and 94,579 fewer votes than Burr. […] 

The ticket-splitting can’t have anything to do with HB2.  Dan Forest was much more out-front in defense of HB2 than McCrory was.

(Jus’ sayin’ ….)

23 thoughts on “#ncpol: An interesting observation

  1. Really? McCrory — with multiple national TV appearances defending HB2 –and Buck Newton were the 2 politicians I saw as the loudest HB2 defenders and it appears they both lost.

    Trump and Burr were both critical of the law and they won their races easily.

    1. Actually, the loudest defender of the bathroom privacy law was Dan Forest, and he won handily. So did most of the legislators who defended it.

      Burr won because his opponent ran ads connecting him to Trump. Bathroom privacy was not an issue in either of those races.

    2. I’d take Newton out of the equation without further supporting evidence. Down ballot offices, including his, were very inconsistent for GOP statewide office seekers.

  2. I never ever thought HB2 was a detriment to McCrory. Still don’t and as you pointed out, Dan Forrest as well as others, sure dont seem to have paid a political price for it.

    In the east there was a dip in the Governor’s total for one specific occurence that I am aware of. It involved MFC appointments 5 days prior to election. N C Republican Party Chairman Robin Hayes needs to be asked what he knows about this. If he says he knows nothing, he will not be telling the truth.

    Many individuals, families, businesses, and multiple County entities have for some time stood in strong documented support of the commercial fishing industry. This is to include documented supprt by the GOP 3Rd district. Those good intentions are recognized by this individual and much appreciated. It, to me, just doesn’t quite seem right that so much conservative effort be thwarted by what Ch Hayes caused to happen. To think that Ch Hayes being a CCA sympathizer and enabler, a board member, I think, of the NCWL Federation has helped bring the SELC into the effort to rid N C of its control of what belongs to “we the people” (that being our marine waters and the fresh seafood they produce) IS “deplorable”. I doubt Ch Hayes cares to talk about this since the topic of special interests and pay to play is somewhat toxic these days. How bout it Mr GOP Chairman, what say you?

    Browny Douglas
    Dare GOP Chairman

  3. The only angle of the bathroom privacy bill that might have shifted some votes is when the ACC decided to intrude into the gubenatorial race. Their timing showed clearly that the objective was not legislative to change the law, but political to influence the governor’s race.

    After Trump’s appointees have time to get their feet on the ground at the IRS, Republicans need to file a complaint against the ACC and ask that they be stripped of their tax exempt status due to their improper intrusion into a political campaign. Nail the suckers!

    Personally, I have followed and ACC team for years, but NEVER AGAIN!

  4. McCrory is a champ, and a world beater of a debater and man. Unfortunately no ones knows Dan Forest like they do McCrory. I heard McCrory everywhere on HB2 and the media as well. They had exposure Dan didnt. If your observation is correct McCrory is losing at the moment because of several items. HB2/ I-77/ Cooper is better than Dalton and the gads of money that was raised over HB2 and used in any capacity to blundgeon McCrory helped Cooper. I know in my guys district a solid group of the women I talked too were okay with Cooper and Trump. I actually think McCrory won a lot of them, but less than he did in 2012.

    1. McCrory ran strong in my area because of his defense of bathroom privacy. So did out GOP legislators who won by bigger margins than usual.

    2. HB2 was a wash. It probably cost McCrory some urban votes, but he more than made up for that in the votes he gained from it in rural areas. In at least one seat that the GOP gained from the Democrats in the House in a rural area, the GOP candidate ran ads accusing her Democrat opponent of supporting ”special rights for transgenders”. When I heard those ads when I was driving down to the Outer Banks, I was astounded. All the consultants said that the GOP needed to talk about bathroom privacy not oppose ”transgender rights” but she did the latter and it helped her take away a Democrat seat in which the Democrat heavily outspent her.

      Most of the voters wound up about pandering to the nutjob gender deniers are hard left Democrat voters anyway, who would not be voting Republican in any race.

  5. Toll road of Thomas Tillis, supported by McCroy and not supporting NC Commercial Fishermen, and Not supporting Clean Waters of NC Rivers hurt McCroy. Polluting Rivers’ Governor Pat McCroy!

    1. Add in the Confederate flag people and disgruntled GOP party activists, and McCrory bleeds support from a hundred cuts.

  6. Had I known his awful power play against the citizens access to our own fresh shrimp and other seafood, I’d have voted Libertarian. Sell out. He let Robin Hayes and his Cronies sink his battleship. I couldn’t care less if he loses.

  7. The toll road crowd proudly takes credit for McCrory’s loss.Those in opposition of HB2 aren’t smart enough to split a ticket.

  8. I’d wager that the majority of voters in NC wouldn’t know who Dan Forest is – or his stances on any particular issue – if asked.

    Both McCrory and Forest had (R)’s beside their names on the ballot.

    It’s not like it was an NC Supreme Court race….

  9. Some college needs to create a course in its political science department named “McCrory 101–or How to Blow a Conservative Mandate.”

  10. McCrory was the public “face” of Hate Bill 2 so he is paying the price for that. Most folks don’t even know who Dan Forest is or his Hate Bill position.

  11. Indeed. A friend of mine was telling me that McCrory won and Forest lost his county in 2012, but the opposite occurred in 2016. No one seems to have cared about HB2 but the SCV crowd (conservative Dems) seems to have dropped their support for McCrory and so did a number of Hasan Harnett (conservative GOP activists) supporters. Lot of teachable moments in there for the next Republican gubernatorial candidate.

  12. I heard VERY little about Forest vis-a-vis HB2, while McCrory was beaten like a throw rug on the issue. So, I think concluding it wasn’t a millstone for McCrory is a logical leap.

    Had he been consistently principled throughout his tenure, I suspect he’d have garnered the loyalty and votes of more conservatives. I found that half of what he did as governor impressed me, while half had me shaking my head in bewilderment. I voted for him because Cooper is awful, not because I was excited about another McCrory term.

    Alternative thought about the data you presented: McCrory won absentee and Election Day votes. Cooper won the early voting period wherein vote fraud was (I believe) easiest…

  13. HB2 is a pimple on an elephant’s behind in the McCrory loss. His failure to oppose the Mooresville-Charlotte toll road on I-77 more than accounts for his margin of loss. The arrogantly superior snobbishness of Pat McCrory on that issue alone was enough to gag a maggot off a meat wagon.

  14. Toll roads, SCV license plates and commercial fishermen–bad errors in judgment. Cost Pat the governorship. Sad.

  15. Lets look at another interesting number, and that is illegal aliens illegally voting, thanks to politically motivated Democrat federal judges removing our voter ID law, which would have stopped that scam.

    http://www.beaufortobserver.net/Blog-3931.112112-11767.112112-Will-three-ultra-partisan-Democrat-judges-steal-NCs-elections.html

    There are estimated to be a quarter million illegal aliens in NC, mostly Hispanic. A national survey published in 2014 found that 14% of illegal aliens are illegally registered to vote, and that 6.8% of illegal aliens actually did vote in the 2008 election

    If illegal aliens in NC in 2016 voted in the same proportion as illegal aliens did nationally in 2008, that would mean that 17,000 illegal aliens voted in North Carolina this year, pushing three statewide races into the Democrat column.

    However, there were widespread reports in the media of increased turnout by Hispanics, the class that includes a high proportion of illegal aliens, and Obama was even on Hispanic TV telling them that it was okay for illegal aliens to vote. Hillary Clinton had an illegal alien heading her Hispanic Get Out The Vote campaign. So in all likelihood, illegal aliens voted in even higher numbers this year. If they only increased to 7% of illegal aliens that would mean 17,500 fraudulent votes in North Carolina. If they reached 8%, that would be 20,000 illegal votes by illegal aliens.

    It would appear that those politically corrupt federal judges rigged our election for their political party with their politically motivated ruling.

  16. Pat McCrory’s mulitipe public personas were what caused Pat McCrory’s stinging defeat. His legendary flip-flopping cost him the trust of the conservative voters who propelled other conservatives to victory. McCrory has only himself to blame.

  17. If HB 2 had been a serious negative factor, we would not have retained our super majority in the House and gained an extra seat in the Senate. I-77 and some other factors hurt the Governor and caused some problems for Legislators who supported the tolls.

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