#ncsen: PPP says Hagan 46, Tillis 45
This survey, conducted in patnership with the leftist Center for American Progress, was conducted among 738 likely voters from Oct 30-31. It has a margin of error of +-3.6 percent.
Here are some of the poll’s “key findings”:
- One key economic issue that affects American families is paid family leave for workers. Sen. Hagan supports guaranteed paid leave, while Tillis opposes such a measure. Sen. Hagan’s support for paid family leave makes North Carolina voter more likely to support her by a 40–28 margin.
- Education funding is important to North Carolina voters, and Tillis’ slashing of $500 million from public education appears to be a major issue in voters’ minds. Voters are less likely to back Tillis by a 24-percentage-point margin because of his moves to cut public education.
- Sen. Hagan’s vote for the Manchin-Toomey gun background check wins her twice as many supporters than detractors. A full 50 percent of North Carolinians say they are more likely to support her because of the vote, compared to 25 percent who are less likely.[…]
Thirty-eight percent of respondents said they had already voted. An additional 59 percent said they WILL definitely be voting.
Those poll numbers flip flop about as much as Thom Tillis flip flops.
Polls don’t matter so much anymore. We have 18% turnout for early voting which is a massive sample size and I think very indicative of tomorrow. With D turnout hoving around 48% it’s hard to see Kay not achieving over 50% right away. (Yeah I know she’s not a motivating candidate for her base, but there are “blue Republicans” in Charlotte and Raleigh that will make up for that)
Whenever I try and make realistic educated guesses about how this election will go… I figure Haugh tops out around 5%. There is no strong history of 3rd party votes in NC and the L team usually gets around 2%. The Dole-Hagan race was a high water makr of around 3.5%.
Well, if Hagan gets over 50, and Haugh around 5, that leaves low 40s for Tillis. No wonder both RedState and HuffPo don’t bother discussing this race anymore.