NC-03: Dacey’s own #’s show a loss to Jones AND somebody named UNDECIDED.

There is an interesting strategy being put forth by NCGOPe types this cycle.  Put a lot of bad news out there, and demand MO’ MONEY.

We saw Matt Bales with the NC House GOP caucus doing it.   Now here comes Indian casino lobbyist (and GOP congressional candidate) Scott Dacey and his campaign guru Paul Shumaker:

Okay.  Let me do a little translation for you.  Team Dacey did something called a “push poll”  — where you call potential voters and feed them slanted, negative information about your opponent with the hope of driving your opponent’s approval numbers down.  This can be confirmed by the phrase in the second to last paragraph: “[…] the number one recalled messaging point was that Jones votes with Pelosi and opposes Trump.”

According to Conservative Review,  Walter Jones (score of 86% or B) is the third most conservative member of North Carolina’s US House delegation.  He is behind only Ted Budd (100% or A) and Mark Meadows (95% or A).  Shumaker’s other congressional candidate engaged in a heated primary, Robert Pittenger, gets a grade of 55% (F) from Conservative Review. 

Mark Meadows has campaigned with Jones.  I can’t imagine him cheerleading for someone who would simply fight Trump and back Miss Nancy.  

  • Let’s go to paragraph 2 of the Shumaker memo.  Dacey’s polling shows Jones with 40.3%, Dacey at 19.7% and Law at 9%.  That leaves a roughly 31% undecided / no opinion contingent. So, Undecided is pulling nearly twice the vote of Shumaker’s candidate.  Also, Shumaker’s candidate Dacey is losing by 20 points. (*And all THAT, apparently, is a good thing.*)

The Shumaker memo describes Jones’s numbers as “falling near the threshold needed to avoid a runoff.”  The legislature, this past session, reduced the threshold from 40% to 30% to avoid a runoff.  So, even if you take the findings in this memo seriously, Jones still has a ten point (or more) cushion.

  • In the “Greenville media market,”  Team Dacey’s polling shows a 14-point lead for Jones and a 30.5 percent undecided contingent.  One problem: The “Greenville media market” includes pretty much all of eastern North Carolina — which includes the 1st district represented by Democrat GK Butterfield.  Pitt County, of which Greenville is the county seat, is pretty much split in half between the 1st and 3rd districts.   Sooooooo — polling the “Greenville media market” includes an awful lot of people who can’t even vote in the 3rd district race.   Even with that glaring problem, Dacey’s numbers are still not great.
  • The Shumaker memo takes a stab at the “most interested” voters.  The margin there?  39.9% for Jones and 24% for Dacey.  And 30.8% UNDECIDED.

After all that — keep in mind that these numbers follow a roughly $250K media buy by the Dacey campaign.  Which appears to have resulted in a consistent 30% undecided finding and third-place Dacey finish (behind Jones and UNDECIDED).

 

 

13 comments for “NC-03: Dacey’s own #’s show a loss to Jones AND somebody named UNDECIDED.

  1. March 15, 2018 at 1:21 pm

    If Jones is really at 40% then he’s probably going down, even with a third candidate, because ultimately for most voters this will become a two-man race unless Law spends some serious money. Then it could be anyone’s game, or Jones’s with the split.

    • Patriot James
      March 15, 2018 at 6:33 pm

      The runoff is only triggered if a candidate doesn’t get 30%, not 40% as in years past. Be it Jones or Dacey, I have no doubt one of them will get 30%.
      Let’s hope for the people of Eastern North Carolina that they aren’t so upset with a few votes cast by Jones that they would elect a lobbyist for casino gambling who has a history of supporting whoever is in charge, Democrats or Republicans.

      • john steed
        March 15, 2018 at 9:30 pm

        If you look at Dacey’s contribution history, he is no better than a Democrat. If he is the nominee, then conservatives will have no one to vote for in the general election unless the Constitution Party gets someone on the ballot.

  2. Myron Smith
    March 16, 2018 at 1:31 am

    Support Walter Jones, great US Representative from Eastern North Carolina. Thanks for the explains the numbers voting. All my friends and family will be supporting Walter Jones. the NC Commercial Fishermen and Veterans and Military that I know will support Representative Walter Jones.

  3. Esmeralda
    March 16, 2018 at 5:41 am

    My new vote criteria is: who is the candidate’s campaign advisor. If it is the nasty Leftist Paul Shumaker, I vote for the other guy.

  4. Candy
    March 16, 2018 at 11:42 am

    That looks like there may be some room for Phil Law!

  5. john steed
    March 16, 2018 at 3:18 pm

    Paul Shumaker usually does his own polling, and charges campaigns a pretty penny for it. If this is a Shumaker poll, rather than from an independent pollster, then the opportunity for a thumb on the scales is very apparent.

  6. Vernon hill
    March 16, 2018 at 9:17 pm

    JONES IS A CAREER POLITICIAN HAVING BEEN IN NC LEGISLATURE FOR 20+ YEARS AND CONGRESS FOR 20+ YEARS…..AND LIED ABOUT TERM LIMITS TO GET ELECTED.
    SEND HIM HOME.

    • patrick
      March 18, 2018 at 12:23 am

      sorry but you are so wrong the U.S House needs more like Walter someone principled and willing to stand up when all other run and hide

      Talk about a conservative statement
      JONES: “I’M ALL FOR TAX REFORM, BUT WE CAN’T DO IT BY ADDING TRILLIONS TO THE DEBT”
      https://jones.house.gov/press-release/jones-“i’m-all-tax-reform-we-can’t-do-it-adding-trillions-debt”-0

    • john steed
      March 18, 2018 at 10:42 pm

      A career LOBBYIST is much worse and that is what Scott Dacey is.

      Lobbyists only know how to represent their special interest buddies.

      • patrick
        March 18, 2018 at 11:21 pm

        don’t forget lobbyists are also out for themselves otherwise they would not be doing it that are always out for personal gains

  7. Gail
    March 18, 2018 at 6:36 am

    Walter Jones is one of the few in Congress who vote based on the constitutionality of a bill and whether it adds to or reduces the federal deficit. He also votes against illegal immigration. The NC 3rd is blessed to have him!

  8. Barbara Garrett
    March 18, 2018 at 6:23 pm

    I can’t even begin to tell you what a nasty little man Dacey is. I have been running several Facebook posts highlighting some of his background – like the fact he personally gave campaign money to CHARLIE RANGEL (yes I have that campaign sheet). On the night of the State of the Union Adrress, I was out with other friends at a public event sponsored by the local GOP and he attended. Why? Because Phil Law was there and I was there. He came up to me and verbally attacked me in front of several others sitting and standing at the table with me. There was pure venom in his eyes. He never bothered to walk around the room to introduce himself all night, yet made the effort to seek me out and verbally attack me. When I asked if there was anything I had said on Facebook that was false (because I offered to delete it and apologize for it) – he publicaky stated NO. He asked “why are you so angry?” To which I told him I am angry because people like him get sent to DC after they have misrepresented themselves.

    Does anyone else find it a coincidence that the last two candidates to challenge Jones are both from Craven County, were both Lobbyists and were both Bush appointees? Coincidence? I think not.

Comments are closed.